Here's a close up of the big triangle in the 1 hr on this thread entries are on the 1 min usually when this breaks out it's gonna be big
ok I had a refreshing sleep and I didn't miss any action! We'll take a look at the big picture - the triangle in the 1 hr chart. Let's not get a "bankers head" on here. By that I mean bankers always, always get on the wrong side eventually because they think, "This has a great track record and can only go one way." When it got to the top yesterday I noticed some guys on ET were playing the song "The Only Way Is Up" when we were getting ready for the swing down. But more important let's look at how a market finishes off a big move. There are usually 3 distinct pushes - you can see this in the trend lines that we are on the third push, so my "BEWARE" radar is on full alert. Yesterday was very hard to play in 1 min charts - they did everything to throw us off. That's why you have to play for position at times and know what the gameplan is most likely going to be. Won't always be right, but that's where the big bucks are made - having a good sense of direction. OK so look at this chart - a big emotive triangle and lot's of, "It can only go one way" talk with 3 trendline pushes. Hmmm
Tails = Pain and looking at the daily chart we can see some guys were taking profits rather than thinking it's a one way ticket to the moon.
Let's go closer now and look at the hourly chart. There are 2 T/L's acting at this point and we have been buzzing between them so we are still in support.
ok a nice pips in the bag pop up on support. I'm looking for a pull back on the hourly again before the decision to run up. That's if the pull back doesn't turn severe and breakout.
resistance on 30 min is around 76 and that is a good place and time for the hourly pull back... if it sets up then. Watch time.
Morning yoohoo! Excellent morning here, finally above +10C temp again and sunny... So your analysis is that after this triple highs test we're to strongly reverse DOWN in a long term?
Morning CF - glad you're getting some "heat" hehe... it's blue skies and 33 here. Re the chart set up, triangles have a higher odds breakout in the direction of the prior move, but it's far from 100% and I'm concerned about there being too much sentiment that it's one way from here - the market likes to throw in a few twists. In any event it's a great trading set up - long into space over the top or short out the bottom. There could be a major event that lets all hell break lose and the markets are so entwined with each other and loaded with bad news and time bombs that that is possible, even probable. But 3 pushes and one-way sentiment has made me think this doesn't look as good as it seems. If we do resolve the triangle to the downside then we'll see how long the direction will last. It's waves within the hourly and the hourly set ups that interest me most, but I couldn't help but say, "Well, will you look at that!"
I see, indeed it's looking like asymmetrical triangle pointing UP right now... But of course this is not 100% and can be a tricky trap for Euro bulls...