Thanks, 1R. Still a long way to go.. Just when a trade thinks he pulled a good one, and there still a shit load of thing need to learn but I am ready for some ATM time in da future
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: GETTING LOST! There are times when direction is unclear; it happens in every TF but using multiple TF's usually lets us discover a tell-tale on a trade that can roll over and suddenly it all becomes clear with PIB. When all the TF's cycles line up it's a huge ATM but the opposite cycle must also set up later in the month when every cycle opposes each other and the market becomes a mess... a bore and then it breaks out like a racehorse out of the stall. Looking at the daily chart right now I feel a bit lost, but ya know what... it doesn't matter for two reasons. 1st, I trade the intraday moves and 2nd I knew where the daily bottom and top was well in advance. This chart is the same old daily chart that you'll find me using way, way back. The blue lines are the long-term daily channels; red TL's at the top are monthly TL's. A while back I wrote I was expecting the channel to be broken and that should be very negative, but I thought in this case it would not be negative but instead set up a sideways channel with 600 pips in height. The blue dashed channel is the prior extreme penetration of the channel and the yellow oval shows where it's well and truly broken so pattern traders would be taking big short positions. A lot of this is educated guesswork but I got the 600-pip move up almost to the pip and then a neat reversal into no-mans land. Cycles are now messed up but my thinking is it's more likely to pop up and then continue down daily. So far the sideways channel looks correct... bottom where I expected... top where I expected... pullback where it makes sense (50%) except that's also channel support. Is the old channel back in play or are we forming a new horizontal channel before the next impulse? Time will tell. If I were trading daily I'd have a fat PIB and be able to sit on this or be more aggressive and play the 50%. Two things I want to bring out of this chart. (1) It's natural to feel lost at times and (2) Aggressive trading to collect PIB puts you in a winning position financially, mentally and emotionally. There's also a 3rd point I want to mention - structure - specifically the 50% level. I don't use Fib Levels because the best way is to look for multiple Fib levels that bunch up on each other and it requires too much work in multiple TF's. I have s/w that draws them automatically but it clutters the screen so I have it turned off. However I know how to trade Fibs and that's because 20 years back I used Barons Quarterly Trading Championship to get the names and numbers of the top 10 traders each quarter and I'd phone them for an exchange of trading ideas. Almost all of them used Fibs as their core technique. Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci and everyone else have their favourite magic numbers but one thing that everyone's agreed on is the 50% level. When you get some free time take a look at every move in any TF and project a 50% line forward to see how PA reacts to this level in the future. It's worth doing this so your eye gets used to seeing it - it will come in useful. It's like the ABC projection we looked at some time back... one you want to know about. And using a quarterly ABC takes us to 1.70 and that structure looks sound at the moment. If my sideways channel is correct we will get back down to a double borrom and then it's back up - eventually 1.66 channel top depending on time and 1.70 ABC.
sorry guys I thought I imported that chart properly from another PC but made a mess of it. I'm eating now and will resize it in 15 mins.
just have a small earthquake here. I'm 5 floors up and it makes you eyes go strange - everything moving that shouldn't be!
YH, pull a wine bottle upside down, that will alarm you of the further quakes.. This is what people do in the quake area in Sichung, China after 12th of May..
My father lived in a high earthquake risk region for a long time... So when one happened here, everyone ran and he was still... When asked, answered: "if it's really strong, nobody's gonna run out of building anyway".... So he calmly took all documents etc. important things as well as warm clothes (it was Autumn) and went out...