Well, technically it wasn't divergence from what I see on your chart as price didn't form an exact double top or 2B, but they all look toppy for sure...
Man..I hate this...Never Getting right... Oh well...the best might be to estimate the worst and enter those levels... so made this scheduled for each trade day EURUSD Shrt Long _________ Profit Range Today 1.5875 1.5161 _________ 1.5376 1.5655 T+1 1.5855 1.5141 _________ 1.5357 1.5634 T+2 1.5833 1.5120 _________ 1.5335 1.5613 T+3 1.5811 1.5098 _________ 1.5313 1.5590 T+4 1.5787 1.5075 _________ 1.5290 1.5566 T+5 1.5762 1.5050 _________ 1.5266 1.5541
anybody any idea what just happened ... I was long at 91 , luckily had a hard stop in at breakeven ...
Basically Bernanke just gave a speech indicating that he thinks the US economy isn't doing too bad... which was interpreted as a possibility of impending rate increases by the fed. I was really thinking about going short a couple of minutes before his speech as that's how it seemed it was going - but the uncertainty of such a major news event put me off. Oh well, lost out this time, should have been more brave perhaps...
Bernanke is speaking via sat to Barcelona group talking up dollar strength ( implying US rate increases) Euro down 0.03% at $1.5532 9:09 AM ET, Jun 03, 2008 Dollar up 0.5% at 104.93 yen 9:09 AM ET, Jun 03, 2008
Never trade in front of econ speakers, you may get lucky but not worth the risk in the long run. edit: there are 2 problems, you never know what's going to come out of their skunky mouths and you never know how it will be interperted by players . 6am est had a double whammy as Shirakawa also was schedule to speak.
Yeah, Ben caused the very big dollar rally... And it was time to exploit it as cause was known (I was listening to Ben on BBG) and it was only left to find some short entries...
Hi guys, well what a great Tuesday.. but did Ben make it so or did he change things? Did the charts tell all? Could you play before the news? First of all, don't play small TF's "before the news" until you are really sharp, have proved on paper you can read it and have PIB and stop in place before you try. But todays big short was telegraphed 4 hrs in advance and was ultra low risk. My last "Thought for the Day" was taking the eg of a casino for knowing when it was Time for the table to be red hot and playing the odds. A few times in the month the 4Hr thru to the 1Hr have a cycle-high coincidence and when it happens it's a huge red hot ATM usually worth 100-250 pips. Frequently it's a gift and the great thing is indicators scream out the perfection of the set-up so all we have to do is glance at it, get in the trade and sit and sit and sit. Loads of signals came from the 1 min channel thru to 1 Hr reversal... roll overs galore. Here's the important thing to be solid about: indicators don't know the news is due - just play what you see when it looks like it's all coming together it's for real. A week ago I said if we get a break of the Daily EMTL the bottom (blue) Daily channel was the target, and with each break of the EMTL we got a neat return (arrows) and then continuation down. For todays intraday action look at the CCI on the 30 min, 1 hr, 2 hr, 3 hr & 4hr... it was an unmissable single voice. When the 1 Hr reversed you got such a big comfort zone before the news. Then look at the 4 Hr Pin Bar - screamer. The shake out long bull trap is the norm before the big wave so it you countertrade the 4 hr in this cycle set-up you have to be nimble. This is all as last described - the cycles will begin to go out of sync and when we get to the opposite cyclical position the charts will turn to mush. I've posted the Daily, 1 min, 1 Hr & 4 Hr. This will happen again this month - be ready for it