for something totally else, would you consider this a pin bar on the hourly here yoohoo ? Or would the dowtrend take priority here ?
I find this one of the most difficult things: how long let the 'direction' play and when it's time to start going countertrend.
You need to use your professional skills to get into the psyche of the market. The 1 hr up was a countertrend move against the 4 hr. Think about the possibilities - hard and fast reversal or like walking thru tar. Markets often reverse when they look strong to keep you out. So the daddy 4 hr badly wants down - you should be asking yourself where and how will they do it. If you missed the double top on the 1 min etc look at this 5 min chart. This is like hunting a sniper who is out to get you... you know what he wants to do but he must fool you... you have to expose him. This 5 min top was a risk to sit in - not a risk of loosing $, but a risk that you might let a profit get stopped out. I watched the move up knowing it was a fake - a very tradable fake. Use your psychology background CF, the market wanted up so it could fulfill the 1 hr but it was on borrowed time on the 4 hr. So if you could see this was likely to unfold,,, tell yourself your next actions just as you would if you were hunting your sniper. Talk to yourself, have a clear plan of action. Try to get into a safe position so you can let the market work. Take of half the 1st few times so you have PIB, feel good but want to take more. Clockwatch - let each TF get a bite. But CF, a hammer on the 4 hr... in sniper terms he's behind you and you are in his sights. You are out thought. Instead back your initial judgement. At the start you might make a few errors - shorting too early. But when you get an ATM run under your belt , a free 50 - 150 points for riding your analysis... it's addictive. We were all agreed on the up move but the down move was actually easier to call. Become more of a hunter. Make your gameplan clear. Catch your prey as it gives the inevitable reverse signal on some TF (this one went through them all). Then stick with it... stick to what you thought and don't let them shake you out. If you countertrend, you just must reverse.
not a pin bar - really has to stand way out from the crowd. Most of the length of the bar is inside the prior bar.
Yoohoo, Very inspiring post, it really felt like percolated my mind and made me think a bit differently... Will try to apply that next time I watch the mkt.
Really thats so different mindset - to catch a small TF perfect entry reversal and if it's right then roll timeframes, relax and just watch the big move develops... Incredible! (I just looked back at today at how would I act if I rolled timeframes and really see I could simply hold the move down).
yea I know - very tempting to take 30 pips but later you see there was another 120 on the table. Partly the answer is experience, nothing beats doing. But lets look at this logically. Say you get a perfect pullback in the 5 min chart... how much time are you looking at. For a fluid move you need a minimum of 2 bars so thats 10 mins. Reversal might average 7-10 mins. If it was a reversal instead of a pullback what will you expect? If you called the energy on the 5 min chart correctly then more than 2 bars at least. So if you call a reversal on the 1 hr - how long will you give it if you catch the top in a 5 min chart? Well it depends on the 1 hr bar. If all hell breaks lose then perhaps 1 bar will do all the damage required. But if not... more than 24 X 5 min bars and that would be poor. So reading energy levels is one answer to clockwatch. Of course there's S&R, TL's etc. but assuming the pressure is strong, it will either break these or bounce and reverse thru them. That's where reading the signals as it rolls on to another TF is of great benefit - everyone needs their cut until we get a S/R in a major TF and time has had it run.
Great hint about use of the time... Indeed I find time element to be heavily undervalued in "common" trading routine as opposed to what we learn here...
Yoohoo,....the trading platform from Oanda...uses a 3 hr. TF chart....not 4 hr.....will that hurt me in my analysis of cross referrencing TF's....as you describe?? will I need to buy or subscribe to another trading platform? so far, the standard platform that comes with Oanda....feels user friendly to me....not perfect,but ok.... I have to work around it in some ways,clicking on different TF charts,scrolling around in funky ways that irritate me sometimes, but its useable..... but what about that 3 hour TF..... how should I handle that ?