Intraday FX Player

Said I'd post something to explain further my use of EMTL (Emotion Trend Lines). Spent ages counting bars, arrows and explaining and then when I posted EF crashed and I lost it all, hence the test post. Anyway before I type anything here's the chart.

 

Ok having gone to Seattle’s Best for a blueberry muffin and vanilla shake to calm my angst at ET crashing and me losing all this type, here goes again.

I’m not going to go into my use of Time & Price projections other that it’s as before that the 1st reaction close gave the rising T/L and when it connects with an important T/L that’s the call.. it was bang on.

The chart is a 4 hr chart – the largest swing chart I use fir intraday trades. First thing I want to point out is that the Top Candles show a Reversal/Continuation meaning take the breakout either side. The Bar Chart shows a K/R so unlike the Candles it calls the direction down. This is why I use both Candles and Bars for a lot of my charts. Bar Charts can be squeezed much tighter and you can still see the signals whereas candles need a little more space.

The Bottom signal was pretty much an inversion of the Top. The blue line Charly is a daily T/L

What I want to do is compare Classic T/L drawing with my use of EMT (Emotion Trend Lines for an earlier entry. What I do here works equally as well on a 1 min chart or a weekly chart.

The dotted line is the Classic T/L; it’s a little harder to draw on the Candles but easy on the Bar Chart and the green arrows show 3 contacts. What we want to do it validate the power invested in this EMYL by counting the times one of the 5 points of emotion makes contact. The 5 points as per my earlier post are OHLC and Mid.

The EMTL starts 1 bar earlier than the Classic because the violation of the EMTL is unimportant – it’s how the emotion lines up and keeping closes on or inside the EMTL that counts. There are 17 bars that are included in the count and 12 have emotion reaction while 2 of the17 are too far away to be counted which gives a count of 12/15 that are reacting on this line. 11 of these have black arrows as I missed one. Here’s the bar count and reaction…

1. High
2. Open
3. Open
4. High
5. High
6. Open
7. Open
8. –
9. –
10. –
11. –
12. High (no arrow)
13. Open
14. -
15. Close
16. Mid
17. Close

Keep in mind if this chart was smaller these points of contact would look perfect so take note that these are close enough to do the business. So I have an EMTL with a lot of value because so many points of emotion LINE UP.

Bar 17 closes outside the T/L giving me the Buy Signal. If I drew a Classic T/L I need a close outside the T/L so I have to wait on the signal. This is a pretty simple example and while it exemplifies how to set up an EMTL the use of it would be a confirmation in real trading, as we would already have been in on the bottom K/R. However it is often the earliest signal and is especially useful when the market congests before reversing and no clear Bar or Candle signal is given or there are numerous contradictory signals.

Monday will be interesting with the Yellow Horizontal showing how candle readers see the chart… resistance from the tail right thru the Mid of the Wide Range Candle.

 

oh I forgot to say, in stock trading they love to close Daily on the T/L so you can't take a MOC entry because you have not got the break. Then they gap the market up next day making traders play with wide stops and giving a lot of options for the gig guys from stop running to just letting it fly. EMTL often defeats this.

 

Why couldn't you start the EMTL 2 bars earlier than the classic trend line and draw it through the close of bar 17? I counted 12 emotion reactions that way also, and it doesn't violate your rule of "keeping closes on or inside the EMTL that counts". Done this way you do NOT have a buy signal on bar 17. Is this not equally valid?

 

Because on my data one bar back is green with a high close and starting from the bar before that means I don't want that green close outside the EMTL. So I draw from Top 2 bars earlier thru close of green bar and this takes my EMTL way wide of price.

Does your data look different?

 

A small gift to start the day with if you were up for it. The same candle set up on the hourly as on the daily post earlier. The green last candle is 4 minutes old.

 

Greetings folks,.... I'm ready for the new week ahead... spent all weekend drawing Extensive Trendlines from the Feb 7 point... did it all on the daily chart ,which took me well into summer up to july 4.
I'd like to contribute to the study of trendlines thats getting going here,.....but..... should I open a new thread topic and focus it there for you all to join..... or do it here....I dont want it to clutter up CF's journal and the focus on intraday fx and 1 minute trading.... let me know guys...

What I'm seeing with extensive trendline analysis is that Right Now....looks like the Most Critical moment for the longer term Euro/Usd...... All the bear energy thats been waiting and expecting the drop back to 1.48 areas.....now is the Best time for that to happen ,if its going to....starting this week, and it must happen ....early.... sunday/monday,or tuesday.....with a big push ....over the cliff ....the Euro is standing right on the edge of a big cliff ,right now at 156 area....the cliff is at 155,with critical resistance point around 1.55 25..... Any strong PA movement down and thru this barrier would be a dive off the cliff's edge and on into a probable free fall(or steady decline) to 1.54 area. But with further capacity to fall more . ....since what this strong movement would be ....is a reconnecting to the big highway down from 1.60 of last week..... The Euro needs to hold above 1.56 to avoid the rushing channel down....the safety barrier is a strong support trendline between 1.5500/1.5525/1.5550.......

On the high side ,for Euro on the upward channel....there's a good one available ,moving into a flag terminal in the coming 2 weeks, BUT the key is these early days..... Euro must take off to higher ground,toward 1.57 and stay around there in order to stay clear of the Cliff's edge at 1.55........ If the euro gets above 15650 and stays there,or keeps the fight between 1.57 and 1.56 ...through the week ...it can recover from the rush down from 1.60..... and in staying clear....would be likely to hang in 1.57 and up to 1.5750..and 1.58 area going into a flag terminal there on May 2. This would be the best hope for euro bulls.
...... and from there...Euro could gain strength to flirt with 1.59 and 1.60 levels later mid to later May.....but also would be fighting against strong down channels trying hard to bring it down to 1.55 areas.


This week presents itself as a Critical Heavyweight fight between these levels...and the sharp edge that exists ,right where the Euro closed friday at 1.56 30......
The low,last week,holding at 1.5556......was Critical ....and stopped exactly at many key trendline points of convergence.

This marks the 'line drawn in the sand for the battlezone'....and for the whole week ahead ...maybe two weeks....and ongoing.
(more gradual down channels are flowing for mid to late may but there is room to work with there as the euro would struggle with the fight between 1.55 and 1.57. The danger zone is right here and now in the next few days at 1.56.

The opening session ,and early hours of the week (tokyo?) (sunday evening for me in calif.) may show the warning signs and portend which direction to watch for. .... Like two heavyweight fighters coming out at the bell to strike the first knockout blow....someone is going to lose the fight. If Euro drops below 1.55.....this could represent the crash the bears have been waiting for. There isnt any better time indicated in the current trendline drawings..... for a big crash down ,it would happen in the next few days.....if it doesnt....but stays holding around 1.55-1.56...but not strong....then it moves into a flag terminal on may 2...centered in the middle of the down channel pulling strong there.

In between these two extremes of forecast is the 3rd scenario.... a chopping week between 1.55 and 1.57 and the key here is where the close is on Thursday in preparation for the may2 terminal break. If euro is in the higher zones around 1.57 the sky is looking up....if its struggling down at 1.55 levels...would portend to a crashing down ...and possible a giant crash to and through 1.54/1.53/1.52/1.50/ and all the way to 1.48....... but in order to 'see' where it could level off.....new trendlines will need to be drawn as it falls from day to day.

What shows right now is that we are standing right on the Edge of this Great Cliff with the euro...between a cliff and the Mountain it just fell from.
Will the Euro climb back up the mountain or fall off the edge.
1.57 is key for UP ...and..... 1.55 is key for Down.
As the week progresses

 

Hello Yoohoo...... that chart you just sent.....Yes ,I think I'm able to see the gifts now (smiles!) it looks like the Euro wants to blast off up to 1.57. the safety rail at 1.5550-80 (last weeks low-1.5556) ....is holding up,so far at least. ....

These next two days will need a boost like this for the euro to survive a big crash .....what do you think?

 

Hi Tom, well what about posting a chart - it makes following your T/L's possible whereas talking T/L' s is difficult to take in? I'd like to see your work so get it up here.

I'll let CF answer your question about T/L posting or a new thread but certainly there's no harm in posting your ideas. If it takes over the thread I'll let CF throw you out LOL.

As far as a crash is concerned, my interest is confined to the 1 hr & 4 hr intraday and of course daily short term. I have not really considered the longer term outlook but I'm interested in your thinking.

Yes the reversal down and up on the Hourly was very predictable... more no-brainer trades for those who catch the Asian reverses. Could be a nice profit in this move as you say.

 

You're right. I see it now. Thanks.