There's an old book on managed futures by Jack Schwager where he talked about how difficult it is to pick successful traders, saying the best way is to find someone with a track record of success and buy his fund when he's in drawdown. That seems to go along with what you are saying.
Every disclosure document should contain the contact for the CTA/Money Manager. Talk to them directly to see if there is a fit. I do that with each CTA. A small conversation could reveal a lot about their attitude towards risk.