Interesting Stats

Discussion in 'Trading' started by chaykapwr, Feb 8, 2012.

  1. 50 Up days/88 total days=56.8% of trading days are up days for the Period Oct/11-02//07/12

    19/26=73% of trading days are up days for all of 2012

    While the first number is in line with where it should be (50/50 split, even though historically it should have a very very slight bias towards up)

    The second number is way out of line. Sure you can make the argument that the sample is very small, BUT the fact is, going long at the close of the day, and selling at the close of the next day for a higher price has a probability of 73%
  2. So, if you threw a coin three times getting 2 Heads and 1 Tail, would you conclude that the probability was 2/3 for the next throw being a Head?
  3. He is another one that failed the probability course :)
  4. I hope that coin comment was a joke.

    Just to update its now stands at 20/27, 74% of trading days in 2012 have been up days
  5. ssrrkk


    I think it's called a bull market. these can be followed by bear markets or sideways markets. just look at a 5 year daily chart and I think you will see these skewed stats in both types of markets.
  6. Obviously , usually these rallies last 45-60 days and we are in day 35