Ladies and Gentleman (ta-da) A sign of a bottom and a top. When people that I told to get out of the market in Jan 01. Now have started to call and ask what they should do. We are getting closer to the pit. When my emotions tilt overly to a direction. It's time to go the other way. I'm not there yet. I need to buy a place because rentals are going to high. It has got to be the top of that market....Murphy's Law.. Meet Murphy
8. A book such as "Dow 3,000" making the best seller list (i.e. The opposite of the infamous Dow 36,000). I think Pretchers book is the #1 business seller on Amazon. A broker clock is right twice a day. Brandon
I don't really know why this is so difficult to grasp and why so many people get lost in ill-defined pseudo-psycho-concepts like investor fear, market panic, total capitulation, etc. If 9/11 didn't accomplish that, what will? WWIII? I think that the market will turn as soon as the average PE ratio drops to historical levels and, at the same time, reported corporate results start getting really good for the second quarter in a row. Simple as that. All other "turns" are ephemeral and trader-driven, whether they be caused by small traders or mutual funds. For a market turn to last, the big money needs to get involved, and they need to see, touch and feel a good earnings picture to justify the risk they will be taking. For me, the best (but not infallible) barometer is the weekly COT reports, whic I believe have a success rate in the 70% range. Follow that and don't jump the gun too much. The good times will return for the bulls too, the bears are getting tired.
You wanna know something? All these gov't hacks should rot in prison, Dem or Rep. They're all on the take. The biggest perpertrators of fraud and deceit reside in Washington D.C. - - - District of Criminals. And I just love the irony of House members trying Traficant on ethics charges. Oh yeah! Like they're all squeaky clean?!! 3/4 of them are probably scared shitless that their asses will be next.
The real bottom is when the fortune 500 corporations getting start to invest in IT aggressively. I don't hear that. I only hear lay off news every week from fortune 500.
It's a bit out of date but worth knowing.... http://www.trimtabs.com/charts/monthly_liquidity_data.html
well, the July 29th issue of Business Week did have a nice big picture of a grizzly bear and dedicated almost the entire issue to the problems with the markets...
How about when "investors" stop buying companies with negative operating profits and no growth in earnings or revenues year over year.
IPO Would you buy a used car from this bank? Most people nowadays will believe anything but the truth.