not necessarily <b>the</b> bottom. When the two local papers carry stories about retired and handicapped people who are 'scared' about the declines in their portfolios. Does anyone remember the days before everyone <i>had</i> a portfolio? That was a real bottom. A friend told me about the 70's when traders were breaking down at their desks and crying....
I've noticed the talking heads and gurus on CNBC have been talking more and more about a prolonged recession/bear market. Which of course means a recovery is around the proverbial corner.
The Bear market will finally end after: -the indexes have been "rebalanced" to the max and the listing requirements are in full force again. The worst stocks have to be allowed to fall into oblivion. Out of the indexes, out of the mutual funds. -the last of the big accounting scandals comes out -the last of the big layoffs happen -the dollar vs. euro bottoms out.
One out of three recently published investment guides at a local bookstore is bear market related. Three years ago there was only one such a book: "The Bear Market Baloney" by Wade Cook.
Here's an interesting tidbit. From the sentiment perspective, Prechter writes that, when books about gloom and doom start hitting the market (and maybe the best sellers's list) -- remember Howard Ruff? -- then a bottom is nearby. Interestingly, he's just published (another) one himself. So, is Prechter's book about the coming market collapse a sign of the bottom? <font size=1>(I don't think so, but I couldn't resist calling attention to the irony).</font>