If I saw some of these things happen, I would be much more bullish about stocks over the next few years. You know you'll be near a bottom. 1. Take that silly NASDAQ display down in Times Square. Before the bubble, the NASDAQ was just another market, like the AMEX. I would expect that to be the case after the bubble as well. 2. A major Wall Street pro goes super bearish, maybe even panicky on television. Abbey Joseph Cohen going super negative; that'll be the day. 3. CEO's start going to jail. 4. CNBC makes a shift cutting their flagship "Business Center" down to a half hour. Having a two hour show on stocks means there is still too much interest in the markets by the public. 5. Mutual Fund cash levels getting above 5-6%. Even in the 1990 bear market, it got over 10%. Mutual fund managers are way to complacent. 6. Time or Newsweek declaring on their front cover "Why you should buy Gold". 7. A major well known mutual fund or family going bust. 8. A book such as "Dow 3,000" making the best seller list (i.e. The opposite of the infamous Dow 36,000). What are some other signs of a "real bottom"?
Don't hold your breath for a bottom. There is no way the market can make any headway to the upside until people feel safe again. Do you see any cozy scenerios anywhere in the next couple of years? There is still money to be made while we stairstep down. You better make it while you can.
I recall during the hey day that on AOL there were many finance rooms, now there is 1, sometimes 2 but only a few people in it, it use to be like 7 or 8 rooms all talking stocks. When there is only a few people in the chat rooms talking stocks then that would be a sign. I also feel with margin down to a little more than 150 billion from the hey day of 270 billion area is a good sign.
How about this for a start: FleetBoston Financial announced late Friday that it intends to shut its Robertson Stephens investment banking division after failing to finding a buyer for the firm and plans for a management buyout fell apart.
How about when a thread on Elite gets started with the title: "Interesting signs of a real bottom in the bear market"
When i hear Jim Cramer on CNBC and his website saying get out dump your positions, we are going down. I know this will be the time to buy. For Know, I intend to wait til the end of october before going long. Unless of course, i can see the whites of their eyse sooner than that.