Interesting oddities...

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, Dec 20, 2006.

  1. Ok, ok, so it's Wednesday before Christmas and I haven't had my morning coffee. But I was reading this morning about all the yapping the French were doing about the high Euro. Then I got to this strange section wherein it discussed that both parties that actually have any shot of winning the next election (which are on both ends of the French political spectrum) are proponents of bringing back the Franc. I blinked and almost laughed aloud. Really? Really.

    Add to that, this comment: "While French politicians continue to worry about the strong EUR, a survey by Forsa for Stern magazine in Germany suggests that a majority of Germans (58%) would like to revert to the DEM. We very much doubt that there would be any complaints about a strong currency from Germany were that to happen, but we don't expect there are too many former EMS traders dusting off the old c.v. just yet!"

    The majority of Germans want the Mark back too? Am I reading that correctly?

    You know, if this cultural pride begins to pick up speed between France and Germany, it could make for an interesting decade.
  2. I recall reading possibly about November 2005 that the Italian Finance Minister proposed a dual currency system using both euro and lire.

    I vaguely remember reading about a referendum about November 2005. The people of both France and Netherlands voted against the European Monetary System.

    One issue that may be driving these developments is the loss of jobs in western Europe (the high labor cost area) and the movement of work to low cost parts of eastern Europe.
  3. Now that I've had my coffee, I can think clearly again.

    You're spot on - it's about jobs. And that's why I wonder what will happen as the Euro appreciates drammatically. Follow me on this...

    Most believe that the dollar will depreciate substantially in the years to come. Let's assume (dangerous word here, I know) that the mob is correct and that's what happens. I think it's safe to say that the Euro will be one of, if not THE, main benefactor of that move down in the dollar. So what happens as the Euro approaches 1.40? 1.50? Beyond? What happens when the Euro becomes like Sterling to the dollar?

    Does the Euro Zone begin to cave? Unemployment is not something the EZ is known for dealing well with. As more and more jobs get outsourced, and each EZ member realizes that it has the sovereign power to relieve this pressure on it's own if the ECB doesn't act to help it, the people of the EZ - already individual in the way of culture and language - begin to shout for looking out for their own. Doesn't the pressure increase to take unilateral action?

    Again, this is just discussion. If you've read my posts on this forum, you know I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I'm just having morning coffee.

    Parts of the article:

    In addition to a host of thorny international issues Germany will be confronted with when it takes the EU chair from Finland on Jan. 1, Berlin faces the monumental task of shaking Europe out of the torpor that set in last year when French and Dutch voters rejected a new EU constitution.

    Complicating the task for Berlin during its six-month presidency will be the sheer size of the EU, which will expand to 27 member states when Romania and Bulgaria join next month.

    The launch of talks has been blocked by Poland, which wants Russia to end its ban on Polish meat imports.

    Complicating this debate will be Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian energy and splits within Merkel’s ruling coalition on the use of nuclear power.

    Germany’s diplomatic minefield will not end there. In early 2007, it may face the tough task of forging consensus on the sensitive issue of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia - an aspiration supported by most EU members but opposed by Russia.