Let's pretend that there were no commissions -- there were no costs to trade and the only loss or gain was from each trade. Let us also assume that there is no longer a spread (there is still a spread so to speak, but each of your trades gets credited for the spread so the net effect is that you only make or lose money if the price moves up or down). Now, given all this, lets say I gave you $100,000 and only allowed you to trade up to 5 contracts at any one time (long or short). The goal of this contest is to LOSE as much money as you can. Do you think you could effectively lose money given this scenerio? aphie
In that scenario most people would make money. First commissions and giving up the edge are the difference between many traders losing or not. Secondly, whatever people try hardest to get out of the markets they won't get. I would go so far as to say that if you had a contest and the rules were that the winner, the guy who MAKES the most, has to live in a rat infested apartment and eat maggots, that trader would blow the doors off the guy whose goal is a Porsche and a mansion.
should be pretty easy just go short when the Put call is above 1.00 and the trin is high and falling and when the t bond isfalling then just go long when the oppiste aply