what are the chances of an interest rate cut now? pretty good eh the dollar is WAY OFF ITS LOWS, COMMODITIES ARE WAY OFF THEIR HIGHS and dropping even though OPEC cut production AND there is a hurricane in the gulf, all we need now is a 100 basis point cut and we're good to go. its the only way to get this sorry ass market to rally
And as screwed up as we might all think it is, I bet the dollar might rally if they cut rates, since 'optimism of economic improvement' might bring about more US dollar inflows.
exactly my thoughts too, everyone now has the notion that since we have the lowest rates we will climb out of this shithole the fastest.
Fed fund futures have been moving in recent days. When I do the math using futures, I get 11% chance of 25 basis point cut at next meeting.
not necessarily but it may calm the market for a short period like it did early this year that will give me time to get out of some of the stuff i bought into a week ago too early lol, anyways i think we will take out the low today... i mean might as well what else does the market have to think about today...
Long term no... Housing losses need to bottom. But it would improve the corporate and housing fundamentals without a doubt. Lowering the cost of capital basically supports higher prices for everything (since risk free rate being lower formally justifies a higher multiple on all assets). But just imagine the wave of refinancing a 100bp cut will stimulate when you additionally consider where mortgage rates will then be. You can get a 30 yr mortgage for 5.75 pretty easily on a primary home purchase right now. Imagine 4.75% interest rates.... Then imagine how corporate debt will become easier to raise as well... So what if spreads are higher than last yr if your baseline rate is much lower.
I think this month ZQ futures might be a kick-ass buy to get what you want without much risk. Option expiration next friday, and you know what the fed likes to do before options expiration.
You already have inflow. It was the Chinese gov raising of banks foreign reserve ratios (5 lifts in as many months) that has played a large part in this dollar bear rally regards f9
LOL No way there will be 'ANOTHER' cut... More likely the next move will be a hold and then a hike, to show that the economy is now strengthening again. They got an interest rate of 2% yeah?? LOL Fuk me id love to have all my creditcards mortages out there, instead uks fking 5%!