Inter Market Analysis and Trading: Follow the Money To Make Money!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by riskfreetrading, Dec 11, 2008.

  1. I think a trader needs to be a strategist and analyze the flows of money, (like a general when designing and analysing war plans). You then go to execution with the tools you have in hand in the real battle.

    A war is won or lost before the first shot! In trading it is less serious as you can also get out, but let us keep it in mind.

    I want to give my thinking of last Friday, and ask what would have been your thinking last Friday had you known what we already know now.

    Last Friday (Dec. 5, 2008) at about 1PM, I posted on this forum and on RFT's financialtrading blog my opinion of a bond market top (at least a short term top). I also thought about the implications if that scenario were to be right. Here how I saw sequences/relations of money flows in mind:

    1. Money will flow out of bonds and head somewhere.
    2. Those who rebalance portfolios would send money to equities. Now the question becomes, where in equities should I put my money?
    3. A top in bonds is also a long call for inflation/commodities. Therefore the area of preference is commodities-related stocks.
    4. Which currencies to chose to finance stock operations. Since short bond correlated with long inflation/commodities, it would mean that one should sell the dollar and own assets (stocks in this case) borrowing with a foreign currency with lowest cost of carry. Result own stocks by borrowing in Yen or Swissy.
    5. The overall strategy was then: long XLE (finance it
    in yen, or in dollar by hedge it with a short USD/Yen
    ), convert profits later to dollars to gain from a lower dollar move, Short LTL ITM calls. The latter is meant to benefit from down move in bonds or a stagnation by earning volty premium on short puts (ITM call = short LTL + short put).

    What do you think of my strategy in retrospect, and could I have designed a better strategy with hindsight?

    (Strategist) RFT