Intel's future

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Gwhiz, Apr 21, 2006.

  1. Gwhiz


    Intel has been getting pummeled recently.

    The stock was immune to huge earnings disappointments and depressing short term outlook.

    That looks like a sign that the stock's bottomed out.

    There has also historically been significant resistance around $20.

    @ 19.06 right now, which gives it a 2.098 % yield.

    Intel is the obviously dominant player in an industry that appears to be the future of our development as a race.

    This seems like a good deal, does anyone have any wisdom on the matter?

    I'm pondering committing heavily for a long term investment.
  2. duard


    Intel should be a good long-term play BUT it may take awhile to turn around and S & P issued a downgrade yesterday. Wait for the downtrend to break then buy the first dip of the uptrend. At least that is what I will do.
  3. look at intel on a 4 week chart, I see support at 19.08 - 19.15, resistance around 19.35.

    - nate
  4. Gwhiz


    where do you see strong, long term resistence, Im not a TA person but it looks like that has previously been a resistence point
  5. i am no techinical wizard by any means....but as i trade INTC on a daily basis i have some personal "opinions" on where this stock wants to go........and thats down.....they didnt meet their expectations this quater and lowered their full year that has only one way for the stock to go...and thats if you have stong feelings towards owning this stock my suggestion is wait till it starts to pound the $19.00 mark and see what guess is that all the computer trading platforms are gonna pound the hell out of the $19's when it gets there to see if they can break the level and trigger stops.....and if that happens i have this feeling she is gonna be in a free fall and could easily reach $18 in no time at all.....then start buying.....but if you buy now i think you are gonna be crying if it breaks the 19 techinical analysis behind this just personal opinion of someone who is in bed with INTC everyday.
  6. my gut feelings here are that AMD must be a short

    there is just no way this PE disparity is justified

    that being said i have not taken any position regarding this...
  7. Chagi


    I'm going to continue to keep an eye on Intel as well, but I want to see some signs of an uptrend before I open a position. I have a very strong feeling that it is going to move below $19.00 next week.

    The two key datapoints that I'm looking forward to are detailed previews/reviews of the forthcoming Woodcrest (server) and Conroe (desktop) CPUs (the Intel controlled previews back around the time of IDF don't count in my opinion).
  8. duard


    I think with the amount of goods in the pipeline (legacy stuff) which is basically worth less than they have it accounted for that even with a good showing 4th quarter and next year its going to take awhile for the wintel windows vista conroe to gain momentum and as mentioned by others the current downside momentum will carry it down before it turns around that in combination with what could turn out to be a very difficult summer for the overall market I would think that waiting is best.

    Having said that if you have a chunk of change you could buy 1 "lot" @ 19, 2 @ 18, 3 @ 17, 4 @ 16 etc. if you MUST buy now. At least by averaging down you will have a weighted cost basis to the upside. Whereas if you were averaging UP you would buy more 4 @ 19, 3 @ 20, 2 @ 21, etc.

    I think alot of people frown on averaging down and it also depends on if you plan on holding the stock for 20 years vs 20 months vs 20 weeks vs 20 days vs 20 minutes.
  9. Gwhiz


    Committing on different levels is a good strategy, I was thinking of holding for several years at least.

    Does anybody know anything about Otellini's leadership?
  10. makman


    AMD forward P/E is 16.7
    Intel forward P/E is 15.2

    This isn't a huge disparity.

    Right now, AMD is cleaning Intel's clock... its offerings are pretty much recognized as technically superier to Intel's on both performance and power consumption for both high-margin servers and desktops (less so on notebooks). That's why AMD's gross margin was higher than Intel's for the first time ever in Q1, and AMD has increased share over Intel in the last 7 quarters.

    The great hope of Intel's investors now is in its new "next generation" architecture due out in 2H of this year. The conventional wisdom on the street now is that this architecture will make Intel actually competitive again. This prospect has helped knock AMD's price down in the last 2 months.

    AMD has been very tight-lipped about what it has on the horizon. CEO Hector Ruiz has been VERY conservative and tends to keep his cards very close to his vest to keep as much away from Intel's eyes as possible. If it turns out that AMD's roadmap is strong relative to the new Intel stuff, and the presumed Intel marketshare recovery may be more difficult to achieve than currently anticipated, Intel's decline could continue.
    #10     Apr 22, 2006