james I make trades with a lot less assurance than some might get from quantum mechanics. . So when all the doubters say you can make money using t/a because you can't prove it I laugh. 97-2003 I traded milliions of shares a month -- I traded 30 - 50 trades a day. I had a 90 day period where I only lost money on 3 days. I made over 100 percent returns every year for about 5 years. I had guys in my office who i trained in t/a methods. They made more than i did. I got a percentage of every trade and some of their profits and I paid taxes on that as well. And you know what -- we traded trends on one minute charts. So I could give a shit if KJ says you can't use regression analysis to define a trend. I used my eye and a moving average and it worked with a sample size that would make it virtually impossible to call luck. so now kj asserts his view of probability theory overules noted physicists. Some of them with nobel prizes. I find it amusing. In one of his posts he is gives assurances that physicists must think like him and now he is back to this sophistry about how his view of probablity theory must rule the world. How about a little admission that perhaps some noted physicists think the Anthropic principle should be taken seriously. I mean it was susskind who made the quoted a footnoted the scientists in his response to smolin. What more do you need than the founder of string theory stating in response to man attempting to be the arbiter of good science.
When you misquote Nobel Prize physicists, it doesn't matter that they won Nobel Prizes. You're still misquoting them and your misquotes are still invalid. Have you ever heard of the quantum Zeno effect?
jem - interesting post... prompted me to read some of yr older posts, and more recent ones outside of P&R... seems you are a rather decent guy after all... apologies if i have "mistreated" you just based on our apparent disagreements alone... have you had a chance to look up Michio Kaku's book by the way?
If during the past four days, the tempreture trended up 1 degree per day, then what is the probability that tomorrow will be 1 degree warmer than today? Answer this question from no more facts than I've provided and you will win the Nobel Prize in both Physics and Math.
cool, why don't u put it there on the chimney, between the Han period horse and the Bose speaker... how about 1/2, as in same as previous, vs not same as previous? as you'll note, intuitively cause i don't want to bore u with heavy duty calculus, you'll get the same figure if you average across the probability distributions of the probability distributions spectrum for each day, from conditional-linked to totally independent, bounded / unbounded etc etc... unless any proof to the contrary of course? (think i'm getting the gist of this thread finally: ultimate comic relief ))) )
LOL. I'll report your findings to the prize committee immediately! That was the point, of course. If the probability is equal then you can't use any regression function to determine causation for the cosmological constant. And, where the evidence neither supports or refutes a conclusion, the proper action is to ignore it, because it has no evidentiary weight.
..unless your name is jem, all he need do is wiggle his johnston at a chart like he does in his previous post and millions of shares follow the no doubt soon to be famous 'rack of eye' non- intelligently designed quantum regression function.
2cents -- no I have not read the book yet. I am planning to order a few online soon. thanks Stu you are one stand up guy.
kj here is some of physics behind the constant and AP from MIT and Stanford professors (including susskind) Disturbing Implications of a Cosmological Constant. 8. Dyson, L., M. Kleban, and L. Susskind. 2002. Disturbing Implications of a Cosmological Constant. Reprint from arXiv. that was supposed to by a hyperlink. you can get the link at the bottom of this page. http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/cosmoconstant.html it is footnote 8.
here is the most recently work by weinberg which I have found. from 2005. the last few pages are apropo. http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/hep-th/pdf/0511/0511037.pdf