Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Jack Haddad MD, Sep 26, 2005.

  1. Hello Board,

    I have been accumulating INTC since 27.33 in increments of 2000 shares. I now have a total of 12500 shares. I have been purchasing at pivatol points (support). My next purchase will be at 23.75.

    From a technical point of view, INTC's 1 year chart is showing solid support at 22.70. I contimue to be impressed with the level of support and consolidation taking place at the current level. The pull-back from the 52 week high of 28.85 represents a greqt buying opportunity... and the stock has consolidated plenty in the 25.00 to 26.00 arena.

    Fundamentally, in the 3rd mid-quarter update, Andy Bryant specifically stated that theu can hire fast enough to meed demands. I have spoken to several friends who work in the production Sub fab building at The Santa Clara Head quarters... They hired 185 manufactoring techs in the last 4 weeks. The chip sector is posed to do real well in 2006 as evident by 6% increase worlwide. Also, INTC's alliance with Apple will begin manufacturing chips in June of 2006. Market will begin to account for that very soon.

    In sum, my goal is accumulate 20000 shares before the next trend ensues. I believe a run from 22.75 to 28 by Christmas is very likely.

    All comments and suggestions are welcomed.

  2. Hi Jack/
    My system says this till x-mas...

    Friday, September 23, 2005 28.70 22.38
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 28.57 22.25
    Sunday, October 02, 2005 28.42 22.10
    Friday, October 07, 2005 28.27 21.95
    Wednesday, October 12, 2005 28.10 21.78
    Monday, October 17, 2005 27.92 21.59
    Saturday, October 22, 2005 27.72 21.40
    Thursday, October 27, 2005 27.51 21.19
    Tuesday, November 01, 2005 27.29 20.97
    Sunday, November 06, 2005 27.05 20.73
    Friday, November 11, 2005 26.80 20.48
    Wednesday, November 16, 2005 26.53 20.21
    Monday, November 21, 2005 26.25 19.93
    Saturday, November 26, 2005 25.95 19.63
    Thursday, December 01, 2005 25.63 19.31
    Tuesday, December 06, 2005 25.30 18.98
    Sunday, December 11, 2005 24.96 18.64
    Friday, December 16, 2005 24.60 18.27
    Wednesday, December 21, 2005 24.22 17.90
    Monday, December 26, 2005 23.82 17.50

  3. Short term/
    Monday, September 26, 2005 25.20 23.67
    Monday, September 26, 2005 25.20 23.66
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 25.19 23.65
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 25.18 23.64
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 25.17 23.64
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 25.17 23.63
    Tuesday, September 27, 2005 25.16 23.62
    Wednesday, September 28, 2005 25.15 23.62
    Wednesday, September 28, 2005 25.14 23.61
    Wednesday, September 28, 2005 25.14 23.60
    Wednesday, September 28, 2005 25.13 23.59
    Wednesday, September 28, 2005 25.12 23.59
    Thursday, September 29, 2005 25.12 23.58
    Thursday, September 29, 2005 25.11 23.57
  4. Kal,

    Interesting data... Let's see what happens. I don't adapt or follow any particular software becuase they don't account for market psychology.

  5. /
    anyways anyone could be! :)
    bought that Option
    I think MKT is north next day
  6. sps_45


    I have been trading intc for 2 years now. I use to be able to get in and out of intel daily trading lots of 200 shares. Then I got stuck in July 2004 when they released bad earnings and the stock dropped 4 points. SO basically from last July2004, my shares have been just sitting there. Around Sept 2004 I got into trading options. So, I started trading long and short calls. I made back pretty much all of my losses and my shares did end up recovering around June2005.

    About a month ago I bought 6 - Jan 06 25 Call @ 2.7. It dropped to like 1.85, I doubled up to 12 calls at average price of 2.275. Right before there mid quarter announcement, I had the chance to get out with a small profit of maybe $100, but I didn;t, because I wanted to see how the stock was going to react to the announcement. Well, it was a bad announement and I have been losing about $200 a day since. I have the biggest loss in my account of about $1400 on this position alone.

    I am really hoping you are right and it does recover by xmas/new year, but I have my doubts.

    Any advice welcome.
  7. Sps 45,

    Be advised that their mid- quarterely update was not bad. In fact, they guided their mid range projection was higher than the lower end they ininitially promised. However, the street didn't take it well because INTC didn't exceed guidance significantly. That's all.

    As to your trading strategy, I urge you to dollar cost average wisely. Be careful of options' time value. I don't buy calls due to that fact. Rather, I write options only. All my 12500 shares are hedged with covereed calls. I'm currently holding 30 January 27.50 calls and 95 October 25 calls. Always be hedged if youre concerned about any downside.

    INTC going to 22.50 or 23.00 is very healthy. It will allow new buyers to step in and commence a new trend.

  8. ==============
    Will comment on several other factors.

    Semisector as a group is nicely uptrending for year ;
    OCT can be weak for teks, however.

    As far as run up up by Christmas, nice uptrends ;
    very likely up trends for semisector,QQQQ,SPY by Christmas.

    Not a prediction, however , much of ;
    this market, excluding airlines, has shrugged off bad news well.
  9. Well i think INTC is a strong stock and i have been watching it for a very long time
    it earning are coming out some time in jan and i think it should go back to 27 28 at least that what i think
    IT is a great stock to day trade :)
    happy trading
  10. keafan


    i've traded intc for off and on for 11 years. the last few years the stock has reacted to the gross margins and gross margins forecast. technically the stock is dead and is having lower and lower volatility around it's 4 year average price. it has not gotten much more than 20% away from that price in the last 2 years. my advice is to pick a company that no one knows about and are having a hard time hiring enough people. then you make a ton of money when everyone finds out about the company. maid services can never hire enough people either. maybe intc can't hire enough people because the prospects aren't that great, especially since the options they are granting are dead in the water.
    #10     Sep 26, 2005