There is actually one selling point that the iphone has that has tempted me to buy it. AUTOTUNE!!!! You speak and you sound like a professional singer. <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/j8xAeBOAC8U&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/j8xAeBOAC8U&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
Erm, aren't you supposed to short a stock when the *stock* is in a buying mania, not when the *products* are? Product seeing a buying mania is a major bull point for a stock.
How is it a bubble at 22-23 times earnings? The only bubble going on here is a bubble in bearishness on AAPL stock, products, and users. Wait until AAPL starts getting serious market share in the laptop and desktop market. Anyone who has compared the products knows that AAPL devices are far superior to competitors'. They are expensive yes, that is a valid criticism, but for non-broke people it is a no-brainer to choose the AAPL product. You also benefit from seamless integration - there is a major convenience in having phone, computer, email, online backup, and laptop all from the same company. Compatibility issues = zero. 1 customer support number etc. Not having to install 20 different bits of software from other firms, with attendant device driver conflicts, for your computer to function. Compare that to trying to get tech support on a PC or Samsung/Nokia/Siemens phone, those guys wouldn't know customer support if it bit them in the ass. Unless some other company shows up with genuine alternatives, Apple will continue until it has >50% of the mobile phone, laptop, desktop, and business PDA market. That will mean earnings at least 2-3 times higher than at present. Anticipate a PE bubble ratio of 40-50 too, and you are looking at a potential $1000 stock in the next 4-5 years, maybe even higher. Yes, something could happen to derail it, if they drop the ball or a competitor gets their act together. If and when that happens and impacts earnings, then it might be worth selling or shorting if the stock is overpriced. But right now there is no sign of that, so the stock is a buy. Not a hold, not an "avoid", and especially not a short. A buy.
Apple innovation is beginning to wane. Ipod? Rendered CD's obsolete. Huge. Iphone? Rendered touch-pad handsets obsolete. Huge. Ipad? A *better* tablet PC which was never a hit to start with. Apple stock is priced for another revolutionary gadget. The Ipad might do well based on the current "Apple Mania" (and that's what it is imo, mania), but that alone can't sustain future earnings. They need a new BIG THING that people actually want, not because it has the Apple logo on it. Virtual reality gaming consoles? 3D Big-screens? Touch-screen PC's? I don't see how they can pull another rabbit out of the hat, under 800$ retail. Don't see it. Doesn't mean the stock couldn't climb another 200$, either.
With over 30 million Americans on food stamps, we're only pretending we don't have food lines. The only difference between now and the Great Depression, is that when the government did start to give money out for free, it was money that we actually had. Today, we've got over 5 million people on emergency unemployment and 30 million on food stamps. This is only the beginning of the money that the government is giving out. The big problem today, is that we don't even have the money that we're giving out, we're just printing it out of thin air. How many would be lining up for a 300 dollar gadget if our money was on a gold standard and we couldn't print these free dollars? I think the piper will have to be paid at some point.
Ok, let's say you bought it on Friday since you say it is still a buy... your price was anywhere from 266-270. Let's review again in Sept-October and see if Apple's stock price is higher or lower. My guess is lower. You should also realize that the market prices (and sometimes over prices in expectations of future earnings) and that is all that I am betting on. If I am wrong, so what, it is just another trade. Apple's stock is off almost $4 from the high on Friday even though the market had a very modest day overall. Also, if you are bullish on Apple then you have to be also bullish on the overall stock market. I am not so that is another reason why I wouldn't be long here.
IPhone is lagging on innovation according to my computer genius cousin. He just tossed his iPhone for the Droid incredible, he says its much faster and less constrained than iPhone. I actually think part of iPhone appeal is Steve jobs is almost holding your hand through the experience.
Yup...heres a ebay listing where one sold for $2k. Wait in line for a few hours and make $1500. Not a bad deal. http://cgi.ebay.com/Brand-new-phone...d=ViewItem&pt=Cell_Phones&hash=item3cae74a683
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out of my short play on AAPL position here... not wanting to sit through earnings next week small win but not the big decline I was looking for back in June. suffered little to no heat on this trade from 270 but going forward looks like downside is more limited than upside...rather take a small profit and move on... holding up rather well today vs the market