Discussion in 'Economics' started by noob_trad3r, Jun 25, 2010.
Lines for a 300 dollar gadget. This should be long term bullish for stocks not?
I would say the opposite. It looks like a mania to me. I don't normally try and pick tops but Apple stock looks like a tempting short play here. iPad is a success but wild expectations. Apple is clearly a leader in their space but they also have a lot of companies gunning for their market share too and a lot of new devices will be coming into the market by the end of the year.
How many times has that been said over the past five years?
I was going to write the same thing yesterday but didnt want to go there just yet. Pretty fucked up to see these people standing in line for hours and even days, I mean its a fucking phone, amazes me to see what some people do for a gadget. My phone is over 2 years old and I am not even looking to upgrade anytime soon. I would bet that at least 90% of these people standing in line have the iphone 3gs they just purchased just less than a year ago.
Well, not many but if you are going to fade moves you should be picky at least. It is certainly not my preferred way of trading but bubbles should be sold at some point. My thinking is Apple is a mini bubble and expectations are too high. I would rather sell hope than buy it that's for sure.
I would tend to disagree - it has been said a ton of times over the years, with people looking to short AAPL getting their heads handed to them. But, best of luck.
I have never shorted AAPL, and am not outright shorting now either... just buying some options for the end of the year... I've been following the iPad and iPhone 4 closely and also their competitors offering and am just making a call. I don't like the sound of this reception issue with the iPhone 4 and how you are supposed to hold it and Apple seems to be ducking the problem for now. Either way it is just a trade. We'll see..
I am not pointing out Apple specifically, but the US economy. If people have 300 bucks to blow on a gadget and willing to wait lines for it that has to be bullish S&P 500 stock in general.
Wow: 77% Of Early iPhone 4 Buyers Upgrading From Old iPhones
Dan Frommer, On Friday June 25, 2010, 7:13 am EDT
Apple's brand loyalty is really showing up in this week's early iPhone 4 sales, which is good news for the company's prospects in mobile.
A survey by Piper Jaffray yesterday reveals that most early iPhone 4 buyers were upgrading from previous iPhones -- and remaining loyal to Apple -- and that very few were switching to AT&T from other carriers.
Specifically, here are highlights from Piper analyst Gene Munster's note this morning:
* 77% of iPhone 4 buyers polled in three cities (San Francisco, New York, and Minneapolis) were upgrading from old iPhones. That's up from 56% last year and 38% in 2008, and represents brand loyalty that is likely unmatched in the mobile industry.
* 16% of buyers were switching to AT&T from other carriers, down from 28% last year. Apple REALLY needs to add another carrier if it wants to maximize sales. (Preferably Verizon Wireless, the nation's biggest.)
* 54% purchased the $299 32 GB model, up from 43% who bought the 32 GB iPhone 3GS last year.
* 28% of iPhone 4 buyers owned an iPad, which confirms that the people waiting in line were the most serious of the Apple fanatics. Of the 72% who did not own an iPad, 39% said they would probably buy one within the next year, while 61% said they would not.
* 65% were Mac owners, down from 75% at the first iPhone launch in 2007.
The takeaway: Apple has a reliable stable of devoted users who will likely upgrade to the newest iPhone every year, assuming there's nothing better on the market.
So, how many iPhone 4s will Apple end up selling this weekend? We already know they accepted 600,000 pre-orders.
Earlier, we had predicted that Apple would ship 2 million iPhones this weekend, but that was before we knew the white iPhone wouldn't be in stock until the second half of July, and before we knew how constrained the iPhone supply would be. (Apple cut off the walk-up line early yesterday morning at the NYC store we were at, for instance.)
Apple should easily pass 1 million devices shipped this weekend, and likely 1.5 million. Whether it can hit 2 million seems a matter of supply, now, not demand.
You may be right in the short-term, but it is a bit like stepping in front of a moving train. Which is exactly what iPad and iPhone sales are - a moving train. I think the reception issue won't be an issue in a week, and as far as competitors - there is no one who can seriously come close to what Apple offers. Yes, you have Apple detractors who have been detractors for the past 200 points, and they will always be there. But the technology is amazing.
Either way, good luck. I never wish for anyone to lose money.
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