Well Said. LOL'ing at the people that continually think because they're bearish, that it has to be some crazy conspiracy that the market is going up. The Fed has made it VERY CLEAR that they are going to inflate asset prices by making it so unattractive to hold cash, that there is no other option then to get on board and watch the bubble re-flate. Long-term, it's probably smoke and mirrors, but we could reach Dow 20,000 before another crash is triggered. You have to go with the flow in trading. Right now, is that most risk asset classes are going up, up, up
Right, it's very dangerous to try to short this. Implication is taking a long only trading bias. Take all patterns/indicators that tell you to buy, but don't take the signals that tell you to short, which tend to have a higher probability of failure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU The Fed is truly testing monetary limits. Even a reserve currency has its upper limits on on how much dollar supply can be created before it breaks and all confidence is lost, which will result in a run on the dollar and stratospheric precious metals, food, and energy prices. At that point, who cares if you made 2 points on your intraday stock trade.
No, it's actually true for all timeframes. Empirical Methods can be made consistent, opinions about markets are never consistent. Once you accept that premise, it is a huge step in the right direction. I get .pdf statements every evening from my clearing firms, and those position P&Ls are marked against market pricing and not my opinion. They never asked me and they don't give a shit if I think the market is under or over-valued. So I accept it and move on with my life. When I transfer funds from that heartless trading account over to my checking account I feel better about how utterly worthless my opinion is to the marketplace. It is incredibly important for young traders to quit being narcissistic about the value of their judgements in relation to other market participants. Speaking for myself, I know that I get paid on price and not my worthless opinion.
John Paulson wouldn't have been able to make $3.7 billion in 2007 if all he cared about was the current price action.
Volume and price action are going to die until the market converts traders to buy and holders. If you don't want to be converted, you get out and stay out until you see with your eyes.