Regarding the supposed "narrowing" of spreads between German and Italian bonds... http://www.euro-area.org/blog/?p=132 These folks would disagree.
FYI: Right now, the "commercials" have a net short position in commodities that is 30% HIGHER than the last major net short position back in March of 2004. Something to think about. Especially in this day and age where some terribly "thin" commodity markets are being pushed around by $185 BILLION in managed futures.