thats a tough tough question. imo gold is the commodity of choice. silver should do well at such low levels. alternative energy like nuclear/coal related investments (along the lines of bucy for example) might shine over the next 3 years. i expect another round of deleveraging in 2009 that could give a bottom in real estate and many other hard asset classes as well. stay liquid, stay nimble...
The (funny) money has to go somewhere. With low interest rates, it's going to have a tendency to go into real estate...
yes but at what point? there's still a glut of unsold homes and housing prices are still out of whack compared to rents and incomes. lower interest rates haven't lowered mortgage rates...
Dumb people are dime-a-dozen...The treasury is/has been issuing bonds for every dollar they hand over to the FRB. Why do you think the markets aren't rebounding? The common equity is the lowest tier of the capital structure and is feeding the tiers above it. Anyone talking about inflation today should be promptly slapped. The inflation thesis is and has always been INCORRECT! PS - The Fed Funds rate is at 1% because there is no demand for debt... Apply that argument to the treasury market as well, why are yields so low compared to corporates? What is that screaming?
All the interventions accomplish is to accentuate the volatility... and I'm for more intervention because for me volatiltiy =income
"The treasury is/has been issuing bonds for every dollar they hand over to the FRB. " But by issuing new debit obligations are not they diluting existing money pool? For new bonds issued, how much real tangible wealth is expected to be created in US? Can you elaborate on the above as well as answer your own questions? Thanks! Also, what time horizons do you (and all) are referring to? 1, 2, 10 years?
Agreed. It gives the cash crowd a head start at say 50% devaluation of hard assets before inflation sets in. All the cash crowd ever ask for is an uneven edge in life.
Suspect this is now becoming the most likely scenario as well. With President elect Obama's victory, oil as an asset class is the most perplexing area. Bad for oil: Alt energy, conservation, mandated efficiency standards for cars, hybrid vehicles, gas guzzler taxes, Good for oil: Currency devaluation, geopolitical risk (oil states relationship to dems?), "rise of the rest", willingness of OPEC to cut production, rumors of b.o.'s hostility towards coal technology. Path for other hard assets is more clear. Farmland still looks good!