Inflation just 2%?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by detective, Sep 21, 2007.

  1. If you're so much smarter than the market, why not just short TIPs? You'll make a fortune if you're right and inflation expectations are grossly understated!
    #11     Sep 22, 2007
  2. I don't know. My only theory is that they are dumb money who believes the offical inflation numbers. I would expect a crash in TIPS prices as the U.S. house of cards continues to collapase.
    #12     Sep 22, 2007
  3. gnome


    Not one in one hundred citizens understands this.... and that's how the Gummint likes it.

    The money pump is government's way of covering over past financial indiscretions and sins.

    At some point, they never again back off of the printing and just go hell-bent-for-leather until the system implodes with a worthless currency. The US MAY already be in that phase, but the US is large enough that it could take 30-40 years before the collapse. In the mean time, we'll see serious inflation and buying power loss through currency debasement.
    #13     Sep 22, 2007
  4. Not secret pact; just co-operation with both central bank and fed to maintain a vital market.

    Look back history; China and US were called enemy to each other during 70s after Korean war and Vietnam war. There were not many American debt purchasers during that time. Where do you think the fed can hide its inflation at that time?

    It is too complicate to explain fully at ET. so just look for who is purchasers of American debts thought out past 30 years.
    #14     Sep 22, 2007
  5. gnome


    China probably manipulating inflation stats too. Recent reports of "6.5%" are probably understated by 5% or so.

    If we can believe reports, they've been money-pumping to tune of 20%/year. Take their stated GDP from that and you have an idea of the true inflation rate.
    #15     Sep 22, 2007
  6. i'm wondering if there has ever been an instance where the BLS changed the way the cpi was calculated which resulted in a raising of the cpi rather than a lowering (when applied to the past)
    #16     Sep 22, 2007
  7. Looks like the "cooked book" inflation genie is out of the bottle now. Central Banks will have no choice but to increase i-rates to slow/stop growth before inflation gets way out of hand (if it isn't already).

    US dollar depreciation is inflationary due to more dollars from exports and higher import costs. FED is in a jam and will have to let go "economic growth at all costs" and start the inflation fight again i.e. i-rates will have to head up.

    Remember back to the 70's even when in a deep recession the FED raised i-rates to battle inflation.

    Australia reports increasing inflation at 3.25%, China reports prices rising 6.3% from a year earlier, 4.5% this year from 1.5% last year and 6.5 for August. Japan also up 2.4% and climbing.....

    ...The report reinforced economists' expectations that Governor Glenn Stevens will increase borrowing costs again after raising his benchmark interest rate in August and last week. The effect on Australia's economic growth from the global credit crunch is likely to be ``modest,'' the central bank said.

    ``There is a long fight ahead against inflation and that mean's there is only one direction for interest rates,'' said Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank Ltd. ``They will raise rates in February.''....

    Consumer prices rose 6.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after gaining 6.2 percent in September. The statistics bureau will release the figures at 10 a.m. tomorrow.
    #17     Nov 11, 2007