Inflation Hedge Question - is there a way to "go long" the CPI?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by bettles, Apr 26, 2009.

  1. If you assume that inflation is accompanied by a weak dollar (not an unreasonable assumption), EURUSD should perform, if you also assume Mr Trichet is as hard as they say.
     
    #31     Apr 27, 2009
  2. It was kind of a (silly) joke that Europe would persue a hard currency policy in times of global currency devaluation obviously.

    If we can take history as a guide anyway.

    Still, some kind of exposure to foreign currency could be wise.

    I read how when FDR devalued the $ and banned gold those with their money in foreign currency did quite well fwiw.
     
    #32     Apr 27, 2009
  3. bettles

    bettles

    Thanks for the responses. I'm definitely going to look into getting TIPS exposure in my retirement account. Already have exposure to gold and energy.

    Bettles
     
    #33     Apr 28, 2009
  4. pathus21

    pathus21

    What about just picking up RTP/BHP/PTR commodities stocks themselves that are also diversified away from the dollar?
     
    #34     Apr 28, 2009
  5. bettles

    bettles

    I may include some of these in my portfolio. However, I don't think it is a no-brainer that just because the US has big inflation, the dollar has to go down. I think the inflation is likely to occur globally, since most other countries are in pretty much the same shape as the US. I won't try to guess which country will inflate faster, only that there will be significant inflation.

    Bettles
     
    #35     Apr 29, 2009
  6. buy some farmland, solar panels and a gun - you can create your own food and energy
     
    #36     Apr 29, 2009
  7. Cutten

    Cutten

    Unless you live in a tax haven, anything that generates taxable profits each year is a poor hedge against hyperinflation. If prices rise 100-fold, your 110 fold profit becomes only 66-fold, assuming 40% taxation. Thus you lose 34% despite a decent nominal performance. And that's before fees, which are charged on nominal, not real performance. 4-5 years of that and you have almost nothing left. There's also the problem of capital controls and regulation, which almost always accompany hyperinflation.

    TIPS are also risky because in a hyperinflation they will probably be defaulted on and converted into nominal debt obligations.

    I suspect the best hedge against hyperinflation is to own a basket of currencies in countries that don't hyperinflate. These also have the advantage of not collapsing massively if the inflation scare is a false alarm. In the unlikely event of a co-ordinated global hyperinflation, gold would probably be best. You need your capital (and preferably your person) out of the hyperinflating country, and should "buy & hold" non-hyperinflating currency/assets until PPP values in the hyperinflating country become absurdly cheap and/or steps are taken to stop the inflation for good.
     
    #37     Apr 30, 2009
  8. pathus21

    pathus21

    What about Global Commodity ETFS/Underlying Products. If you are long the global commodities you won't have to worry about what the individual currencies are doing.
     
    #38     May 1, 2009