No, the emoticon is there to poke fun at your fairness. If I hadn't said anything you would never have posted the June report--because it doesn't fit your worldview.
That's plainly incorrect, and you know it. You're just trying to grasp at straws here in some desperate attempt to make this thread - which was been the proverbial train wreck for your narrative - a bit less painful for you to read. First, the CPI data showing an increase in food prices IS the point of the post you responded to. It shows, without a doubt (and I'm assuming you accepted it because you failed to refute it) that food prices are rising substantially for consumers. That was in response to your article that quoted "consumers should see relief at the grocery store". Yet another laughable prediction. Second, the PPI data - which you asked to see - did not contain the May readings, which - once I noticed, I corrected. Lastly, it should be noted that even the most recent data does not change the "worldview" as you put it, because it is the PPI number Y/Y that is relevant, and that hasn't changed. The monthly data would be relevant if it were a significant change from the prior month either high or low, but it wasn't. It was essentially flat. Would you like to phone a friend for help?
Lol, you're getting snarky now. Here's the zerohedge commentary on the June report: "After the surge in prices in April, May's Producer Prices fall 0.2% MoM (compoared to a +0.1% expectation). Year-over-year inflation rose 2.0% (down from last month's 2.1% and missing expectations of 2.4% significantly). This is the first MoM drop since Febuary for the headline and core numbers as it appears vehicle rental appeared to see prices implode. PPI Ex Food and Energy (core), saw prices rise at 2.0% - the fastest since May 2012. "The breakdown of the drop, first in services: Most of the decline in May is attributable to the index for final demand trade services, which fell 0.5 percent. And then by products: The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; health, beauty care, and optical goods retailing; food wholesaling; and consumer loans (partial) also moved lower. "It appears that any hopes of "benign" inflation finally taking hold have to be postponed once more..." Aww, boohoo, "Tyler".
While colorful commentary in the way only ZH seems to do it, I don't see that he's crying at all as much as saying "I told you so". It also continues to support what I said earlier - that food prices continue to rise, almost alarmingly so.
The Fed's been tapering for what, 6+ months now? Their asset purchases are down, 40%? And now inflation is "surging"... to 2.1%! Which is still near (but no longer at) a 50+ year low. <img src="http://www.multpl.com/inflation/chart-image-f1848031eecdd8a6.png"> Your previous discussion with jem re the source of food price inflation was good.
The Fed is tapering, but it is still increasing the size of it's balance sheet. Ie, money is still flowing into the system via QE. The real threat is what is happening to the trillions in reserves that banks have built up. If that gets released, we see more demand-pull inflation. As it stands right now, the inflation of asset prices through banks using reserves to buy anything not nailed down simply gives us cost-push. That's why we're seeing the delays between PPI and CPI.
Foreign central bankers bought every bond through Belgium that the fed deceitfully implied they were tapering and what good is an inflation number that is manipulated by hedonics.
I agree with much of this. In theory, those reserves would not be released unless there was sufficient investment demand, which is what we want! One would hope that demand is also credit-worthy, but unfortunately, given our society's "life off of interest" mentality, and the fact that each new generation needs to learn about mania, what's considered credit-worthy will once again be found to be not so worthy. And there will likely be a repeat of the money "printing" done by the private sector via collateral debt chains.
I agree with your credit "worthy" commentary, but keep in mind these reserves don't have to be lent out to cause inflation. They are being used right now by banks to buy up assets - stocks, bonds, land, commodities, whatever. That will cause inflation, just a different kind than we're all used to (cost-push).
CPI Remains Stubbornly High as Yellen's "Noise" Won't Go Away Consumer Price Inflation was 2.1% in June (as expected) remaining above the Fed's mandate levels and worryingly for all those who see the Fed as omniscient... refusing to go "noisily" down. Core CPI fell very modestly to 1.9% year-over-year but the jump in gasoline prices accounted for two-thirds of the overall rise in June CPI (seems like the Fed needs to print some more world peace to brings prices down). How many months of 'high' inflation does it take before Yellen admits it is not 'noise'? According to the BLS reports, "In contrast to the broad-based increase last month, the June seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was primarily driven by the gasoline index. It rose 3.3 percent and accounted for two-thirds of the all items increase. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining. The food index decelerated in June, rising only slightly, with the food at home index flat after recent increases." Supposedly this is great news for those who don't have to pay for gas. Below is the chart of gasoline CPI on a sequential basis. Still, for those who face inflation in all its forms, the monthly price increase in June was certainly notable, and can be seen on the chart below. On a year over year basis, the overall CPI remains rather "noisy": Inflation broken down by its components: Finally, the full commentary from the BLS: Food The food index rose 0.1 percent in June; this compares to a 0.5 percent increase in May and is its smallest monthly increase since January. The index for food at home was unchanged in June after increasing 2.2 percent over the first five months of the year. Major grocery store food groups were mixed in June. The index for dairy and related products turned down in June, falling 0.4 percent after rising in each of the previous seven months. The fruits and vegetables index also turned down, falling 0.3 percent after a 1.1 percent increase in May. The index for cereals and bakery products fell for the second month in a row, declining 0.2 percent. In contrast to these declines, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased in June, though its 0.2 percent increase was its smallest since December. The index for other food at home increased 0.1 percent in June, while the index for nonalcoholic beverages was unchanged. The index for food at home has increased 2.4 percent over the past year, with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs up 7.5 percent, but the indexes for nonalcoholic beverages and for cereals and bakery products both declining. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in June and has risen 2.2 percent over the past 12 months. Energy The energy index increased 1.6 percent in June, its third increase in a row and largest since December. The gasoline index rose for the third month in a row, increasing 3.3 percent. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 0.3 percent.) The electricity index also increased in June, rising 0.2 percent. In contrast, the fuel oil index fell 1.7 percent, its fourth consecutive decline. The index for natural gas also decreased, falling 2.6 percent. Over the past 12 months, the energy index has increased 3.2 percent, with its major components increasing from a low of 2.0 percent (gasoline) to a high of 5.1 percent (natural gas). All items less food and energy The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in June after a 0.3 percent increase in May. The shelter index decelerated, increasing 0.2 percent in June after a 0.3 percent increase the prior month. The indexes for rent and ownersâ equivalent rent repeated their May increases of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. However, the index for lodging away from home turned down in June, falling 1.9 percent after rising 2.0 percent in May. The apparel index rose 0.5 percent in June, its largest increase since last July. The medical care index rose 0.1 percent in June; the index for medical care services was unchanged, but the index for prescription drugs increased 1.0 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.2 percent in June, its first increase since June 2013. The index for airline fares, which rose 5.8 percent in May, increased 0.4 percent in June. The tobacco index also rose, increasing 1.0 percent, and the recreation index advanced 0.1 percent. In contrast, the new vehicles index fell in June; its 0.3 percent decrease was its first decline since January. The index for used cars and trucks also decreased, declining 0.4 percent. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.9 percent over the last 12 months; this is slightly lower than the 2.0 percent figure in May, but higher than the 1.7 percent average annualized increase over the past five years. The shelter index has increased 2.8 percent over the last 12 months, while the medical care index has risen 2.6 percent. The index for new vehicles was unchanged over the span.