I have seen this many times before. We get a huge sell off from the highs that seems like a new bear market. We then bounce due to some “ coast is clear “ news such as the fed staying put and china talks advancing. Well, we certainly bounced to the old highs and now seem to be reversing hard. This happened in 2000 and in 2007. The charts dont lie. This seems like a classic double top.
The jury is still out on this just yet, but it could be that we look back on this time as exactly what you said. Don't want to be on the wrong side of it.
Don't try to predict, just go where the market is going. My custom indicator I used to shift from long in trading last year and just now is not a prediction, just an analysis of where things are right now relative to the past. Will be keeping a close eye. I still have 80% of my portfolio in long term hold that I will hold and DRIP until one of us dies. I don't even look at the prices. The rest of it is the bullshit you see on ET.
I would call it more of a "triple top"... more of a semantic difference, as the "head" is usually more pronounced in a H&S... but the implicantion is the same.
for me a valid hns needs to take out the swing low that gave the high of the head and then rally and make a lower high. This is all happening in the dow right now.
Yeah, but it's tiny. The important parts are the "tops line" and the December low. All the rest is noise. (BTW... though the H&S is a classical formation, it's not all that reliable. That is, it many times looks like that for a while and then ends up not. A classic H&S doesn't occur all that often.)
The V shaped action we saw from the december bottom ; a straight line back to the highs ( basically ). Most double tops are V shaped. Most of the reason for the last decline was china trade wars. Since those fears abated, we bounced. Also, interest rates were causing market fears in Decemeber until Powell retracted his hawkish stance. i dont think interest rates are all that concerning at the moment. A protracted trade war with china is an issue and the charts may be telling us that.
Alternatively.... I'm thinking the "trade war" outlasts Trump with China the victor on the other side. (After all, they hold the advantage now and are unlikely to give up much of it easily.) "The Fed writes the market letter"... now as always.
It would be very bad for the American public if the trade war goes China's way. It means that America no longer has world power status. Everything will get more expensive. Any US politician who assists China to achieve this goal (the never-trumpers) will be sealing the fate of the American empire and should be considered treasonous. Edit: I think Pelosi gets this much at least. For all her scheming, she does respect Trump and understands what's at stake. Next little while will be interesting.