Indices Historical Ranges

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by lwlee, Apr 23, 2012.

Where are we going this year?

  1. Dow is breaking to new highs (14000), no new lows

    0 vote(s)
  2. Dow is going negative (12221 and below), no new highs

    0 vote(s)
  3. Dow will extend to new lows under 12221 but then go higher 14000.

    0 vote(s)
  4. Dow will go higher 14000 but then drop to new lows 12221

    0 vote(s)
  5. Dow will have its smallest range in 15 years

    0 vote(s)
  1. lwlee


    As you can see, we still have some range expansion to go. Given the past 15 years, the Dow has always produced at least a 1,000 point range and in some years significantly moreso. While I doubt we see 2001 or 2008 supercrisis this year (they both took time to develop), I would say Dow doing at least a 1500 range is right. So in that case, are we going down past 12,221 or up over 14,000?

    Right now, it's looking like we range lower, so Dow would have to hit lower 12,221.

  2. ==============

    Probably right.
    Except looks like DIA is going to trend higher/140 area;
    based on 2001 Stock traders Almanac[election year],
    3 year chart,
    1 year chart.

    It [DIA]could easily
    trend lower[but thats a countertrend, ''its a bull market you know''-old turkey,LOL] to $60 area or 122.22 area. Not a prediction:D Nor is $60 area likely in a bull market.
  3. lwlee


    Hindsight is beautiful thing, isn't it?

    At the time I wrote the post, we were clearly in a downtrend. Since then, we've rallied off of the 4/10 lows which is a good sign for bulls.

    Dow 13,310 is the recent highs. Breaking that would clearly show we are headed to 14k.

  4. ==============
    March & APR have plenty of gap downs & close below 50dma,which can be bearish.

    But with Jan, FEB March, probably APRIL probably making new monthly HIGHS, its more than hindsight in a bullish trend/bull market .Not long or short DIA myself[now]...Parabolic stop & reverse mostly bearish for APR, but its now today[4-25,4-26, ]& yesterday is buy signalaas 50 dma is a buy.

    And SPY,DIA,QQQ have enough choppy moves;
    if you dont like the trend, wait, it may reverse, especially after they hit the monthly highs,LOL................:D

    Not a prediction:cool:
  5. Since 1995, the Dow has had a range of at least 2000 when the VIX went over 25. So that means we may not see a bottom this year until at least 11359.