The TA indicators are definitely not leading indicators but I wouldn’t generalize saying they’re worthless. I would be curious to know if you’re using any leading indicators or if you favour a certain style of trading.
The futures premium. It's the only leading indicator there is, as far as I am aware. The premium is the true market. Price action can be just an illusion. It measures actual instantaneous demand. Professionals use it. It's the best kept secret in the market, for a reason. Trade secrets, non compete, non disclosure agreements, proprietary information......... A move in the premium is required for buyers/sellers on GLOBEX to affect the cash market in a significant way.
mr real money, i'm liking the sound of this. how can a trader analyze the futures premium and implement trades on that? an example would be most excellent. thanks
50 and 150 days simple moving average for trend following strategy. If this is an indicator for all strategies then it should be called "the holy grail."
Monkeys throwing darts are not worthless either. Futures I don't believe are leading indicators, that's because futures are well known - group think, the stuff of leemings. I never bother my ass with futures. My indicators are just formulas, not on charts, a bit like flying on instruments, the charts are like looking out the pilots window, just for confirmation that we're not flying upside down.
Your best bet is to use multiple time frames as your main indicator. Because of this fact; The hourly trend is only as good as the day, the daily trend is only as good as the week. The weekly trend is only as good as the month and so forth. When you team that thinking up with, for example MACD. You'll see that this gives you a more predictive trading experience apposed to a 'what might happen next' experience. The goal for all traders is to stay on the right side of the trend so using a higher timeframe is your only option.
Just read this thread or my other threads and posts. Trading Risk on / Risk off https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-risk-on-risk-off.336324/