No such thing, you will waste a lot of time looking for magical indicators. But that's the nature of this game. My advice for what you are looking for is to watch the volume around your support/resistance levels. If s/r is taken out on heavy volume it is a good sign. If the market then returns to that s/r on light volume it is a high probability opportunity. Never ever a guarantee, just a good probability.
In terms of stocks it can happen that price levels find a following of buyers or sellers that show up repeatedly for a few days entering or exiting large positions. For indexes the only analysis I find useful comes from a firm called programetrics that I recently began watching. Their quantitative analysis is realtime and it shows when the market is sitting on support like today where ES is stuck at around 980. I can see the futures fading equity sell programs and holding the market. I am still learning this stuff but today is just super obvious. I got a chart from them that covers friday and some of today so you can see what I mean. Basically my strategy with these charts is to not trade when conditions are like this and wait for when I see equities and derivatives are not fading each other like friday morning. That is when the market can really move fast and I can run my long-only or short-only scalping program in NinjaTrader while the colors look good to me.
IMHO 1. Are there any technical indicators that will show that the resistance is likely to turn into new support? No, because any occurrence of this happening is inconsistent. Support and Resistance are independently and sequentially unique. 2. Basically what indicators can you use to determine if there is strong support/resistance or weak support/resistance? Correct consistent chart construction and lots of hands on experience (screen time).
I will say that although there is no single indicator that can tell you this with 100% certainty, you can watch for stochastic, ROC, RSI, volume and/or MACD divergences as price moves closer to an important support or resistance level. It can be quiet reliable, but not perfect. Don't let people tell you that what you're asking is impossible, b/c it's not. I hope this helps.
The gap in data is the weekend. Though these charts plot the ES futures contract since that is what most clients are aparently trading, the main indicator on these charts is monitoring equity program trading since that indicates what the longer term big money in equities from hedge funds and pension funds are doing, and in the end its the value of the actual securities that determines the value of derivatives like futures, etf's, and options. I just saw cramer talking about market drop today and it occurred to me to point out something that explains the uniqueness of these indicators. I posted before to show you the green and red clouds which show actual support and resistance. I attached a bigger better chart here. This analysis is totally different than any technical analysis since its not derived from price action, thats why it actually shows something useful. Look at the gap down this morning, now even though the market rallied friday afternoon, with these indicators you can see a strong red equity sell program friday afternoon so you know not to get suckered into holding long over the weekend. These charts let me see the market working and actually how futures and other derivatves play against equities. On this bigger chart you can see futures fading buy programs on one day and then reversing the trade fading sell programs, selling high and buying low. I am concentrating on finding the areas without the fading since that is when the market moves well in a strong direction.
You need a new charting program then or you need to adjust the session times because the market reopened Sunday evening and traded all the way through to the beginning of your gap. There was a actual gap of 2.25 points but not the size you show. If you aren't using all of the data you might as well be using none of it. See attached.
The programetrics chart I posted is fine, it simply plots the day session in the U.S. when equity and option markets are open along with the futures being traded. I assume most people understand the concept of arbitrage between S&P futures, the individual equities themselves, options on these equities, etf's like SPY related to the S&P, options on the indexes, etc. The programetrics charts display analysis of program trading on all these instruments simultanenously to provide an overall view of trading activity, "equities" are one indicator and "derivatives" incorporates all the derivative trading including futures and options and etf's. You can't simply look at futures trading activity while all the other markets are open, a strong buy program in options will drag futures higher, selling in ETF's will pull down futures, etc. That is how the market works. I happens in seconds nowadays. I originally posted the chart because someone asked if there were really indicators that show support and resistance, technical analysis does not, it only shows a representation of recent price action in comparison to or in relation to historical price action. Oscillators compare the amount of price movement to historic price movements, that doesnt mean sellers will really be there to sell the same price movement. Taking price levels from the day before, or some derivation of those levels doesnt tell you buyers or sellers will actually be at that price today, its simply a guess they will. The programetrics indicators are looking at actual trading happening at the moment and whether this trading comprises meaningful support or resistance, those are the clouds you can see above and below price action and you can see the colors on the histograms below. The support for example can be buyers of futures, but also it could be buying of options or of the actual equtities, or etf's, arbitrage happens in seconds and affects the ES regardless. That is why analyzing the ES is not so simple as looking at only the ES and why the programetrics service exists for those of us unable to do similar analysis on thousands of instruments. I haven't seen anyone else with indicators that actually lead price action or show support or resistance in real time, not having overnight hours is not important to me. Seeing a sell program warning ahead of the 200 pt drop - like a couple of days ahead, seeing support coming in and the market stopping its decline, that is the point of their analysis and why its worth the expense. I can plot my own chart on the weekend if I wish.
Wow . . . you really have a chip on your shoulder when it comes to any conflicting opinion don't you. The charts you posted are missing the weekend trades. It is impossible to make consistent decisions only using part of the data. Omitting the overnight data doesn't make for accuracy it creates inaccuracy and inconsistent results. Each part of your data is independent of your collective whole. Your approach isn't unique but through your own words: "The programetrics charts display analysis of program trading on all these instruments simultanenously to provide an overall view of trading activity, "equities" are one indicator and "derivatives" incorporates all the derivative trading including futures and options and etf's." The problem is that it ISN'T an overall view if part of the data is missing. Do you think that if a pharmaceutical company did clinical trials that it would be acceptable to arbitrarily eliminate "part of the data set". Not on your life. You CAN look simply at the futures market if that is the market you are trading and if your charts are constructed correctly, eliminating the variable aspect of volume in the chart. The chart I'll attach with this post clearly shows Support and Resistance Oscillations in real time and at 4 different levels; 2 faster oscillations which I use for trading decisions and 2 slower ones (one the bottom) I simply use for strength. The labeled prices and outcomes at the top of the chart are read and created in real-time by the computer. I've created the rules to allow the computer to read those 4 oscillation levels in real-time and as they migrate in real-time. Nothing has to be interpreted . . . just read in real-time. The first trade rule is simply and you can look on the chart to validate this. Each indicator is made up of an indicator and a histogram. The one in the middle is where your trade decisions are executed. The one on the bottom is simply strength. Now when the indicator, not the histogram on the middle chart is creates an oscillation top (color change from blue to green) and the strength indicator & histogram are both in the opposite direction of your oscillation (Resistance then Strength all down or Support then Strength all up) then a trade is executed in the direction of strength. You will stay with the trade IF every subsequent oscillation results in a Price HH if Long or Price LL if short or is no Divergence or convergence is created at that oscillation, then an exit is immediate. This is just the first of two trade set-ups that my charts create but the success is based on the accuracy of the data and that all data be used. The charts speak for themselves. You can't find an major draw-downs using these because they don't exist. I can post chart from now until the cows come home and you won't find any problems with any of them in real time. You have now been shown another example of a chart layout and indicators that show true objective support & resistance in real-time and ALSO show an objective view of strength or lack of at each of those true oscillations. I also repeat . . . having ALL of the data is critical to correct analysis of any chart in any market. You can see on the chart that on July 10, 2009 at between 3:30 pm EDT and 3:45 pm EDT the chart triggered a Long at about 875.00 that resulted in an 130 point move that exited right before 4 pm EDT on August 12th with the creation of a labeled Prime oscillation designation and confirmed with the small red arrow and subsequent trading indicator oscillation. My charts are plotted for me by my computer while I sleep and are ready for me when I get up in the morning. I'm not interested in a pissing contest just to let you know that there are people out here that know what they are doing and that are farther ahead then software that arbitrarily omits data for absolutely no valid reason whatsoever. The next chart I will post is an intraday chart. Use the same listed rule on it to see the trades there as well.