Indicators are liars! Support and Resistance Trading for the S&P emini

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by ESResistance, Sep 3, 2008.

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  1. Hi everyone

    Please find attached todays levels The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

    Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

    Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade
    .
    Good trading all
     
    #691     Nov 7, 2008
  2. Apologies - I'll review it. Only an occasional visitor here.
     
    #692     Nov 7, 2008
  3. xburbx

    xburbx

    ESR

    This trade came up today and I am trying to figure out if this was a good trade. I know you wrote that when a S/R line is hit and then price approaches it again in a short period of time it reduces the chance of it holding. I am trying to determine what the acceptable time frame is. As you can see in this trade, it hits the line on a retrace at 11:55. Then it moves up a bit and come down to the line again at 12:34 where I entered. Price didnt move in my direction so I got out as close to BE as I could, but then it took off. I'm curious if this is considered too close of a time frame or if you would have taken the trade as well.
     
    #693     Nov 7, 2008
  4. I've never traded anything less than a 5min chart, so this is interesting.

    I'm curious why you didn't set a stop on a close under the support? Those tails hanging under the support was a good indication that support was going to hold.
     
    #694     Nov 7, 2008
  5. xburbx

    xburbx

    I try to mimic ESR's style and he trades off of a 1 min chart. I placed a limit order and it automatically puts a stop 8 ticks from entry if it hits my price.
     
    #695     Nov 7, 2008
  6. I didn't realize he was using 1 min chart. that's interesting. I'll have to go back and try that.

    I haven't had any luck putting a stop 8 ticks under an entry because the ES usually advances and then retraces around 50% before advancing again. I think it's common for it to go under support briefly, as long as it closes above it. (And for the close part I'm not sure that applies to 1 min chart because with such a short time frame a close is less meaningful).

    Anyway, I should let ESR answer, I'm new at this. In fact i'm having a hard time making it work. I tried programming it in Ninjatrader and I can't get it to be profitable but I'm working on it.
     
    #696     Nov 7, 2008
  7. xburbx

    xburbx

    ESR shot me an overview of his superdom. He said it varies, but the general setup he sent was .

    target 1 - 8 stop 6 profit
    target 2 - 8 stop 16 profit
    target 3 - 8 stop 0 profit

    Im just getting used to it and it actually makes a lot of sense once you see it in action and think about the way it works.
     
    #697     Nov 7, 2008
  8. I was wondering what time you actually start trading the ES each morning with these setups? I was looking to start trading the ES again but only premarket between the hours of 7-8:30 EST. Is there usually enough action in that time period for this to be effective?
     
    #698     Nov 9, 2008
  9. Hi everyone

    Please find attached todays levels The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

    Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

    Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade
    .
    Good trading all
     
    #699     Nov 10, 2008
  10. Looks like a very nice set up. I would have taken that.

    The "strength" of an S/R level is discretionary, whilst it is true that if a number is used and abused it is unlikely to keep working in the near term. However how many times does it have to be used to reduce its odds? This is where discretion, watching price action and looking for a good set up come into play.

     
    #700     Nov 10, 2008
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