Mate the spread on the ES is 0.25 at its most volatile! usually its 0. You need atleast 1 point profit just to get BE right? Mate dump CFDs like a bad habit, the odds are so against you. Commision from most brokers is less than $5 round turn, eminis are the most efficient way to trade the S&Ps movements that I know of. all imho.
Thanks for the advice ES, you are right that trading e-minis is a better way of trading than trading CFDs. I also plan to change to e-minis but I haven't done it yet. So far I haven't experienced any incorrect price movement created by the CFD market maker.
EMC2, With relation to your big picture analysis, does this analysis make any sense? I am relatively new to paying attention to the 'BIG PICTURE' in terms of previous Support/Resistance. You are mentioning a bigger picture than I am looking at for Monday. You mention a 1200-1300 big picture analysis. And particularly before we begin to see a penetration of the 1300 that has failed several times thus far, we will need to see a break above the 1260 consolidation area first. I have this consolidation area as well. But, to take yours even to a smaller, micro analysis for the 8th of September, I've got 3 distinct areas of trading Bias that apply to our current relation to where price is. Currently we are in an undecided, 1230-1245 bracket area. These three areas would be: -Above this current area -Below this current area -In between this current area -If Above this area, on a more micro analysis than yours, we should have a clear path back up to 1265-1275 area. -If below this area, we should expect a move down towards the 1220 area. -And particularly, if we open in between this area, we should expect price to vasilate within this area, and positions entered in between the 1235-1245 area to move to extreme of bracket area? Does this jive with the big picture in your mind?
Obviously, you reached this conclusion by many years of enduring trials and needless tribulations and it's my opinion that experience shouldn't be discounted for our fellow newbies. I think it's very important for them to go through that growing process in order to decide for themselves why indicators are crap.
I have been through a lot trying to perfect what I do, working for "the man" and trading in the evening whenever I got the chance. Ive given up time with my family and friendss, taken some losses and some major emotional pain whilst learning this stuff. I stuck with it and endured, because I wanted the freedom this vocation offers. I hope to save others from that pain, because when you start losing money you begin to question why you are doing this, that money could have bought your family a new car, a bike for your child etc. Many will lose hope and give up, when the answer is just around the corner. By no means am I saying I have the holy grail, but I do believe that simplicity is the best place for any newbie to start and what could be simpler than a couple of lines on a chart...
Forrest, Here is my take on the more micro view you are describing. First of all your lines all look fine, but to me the up scenario is the one with reliability, not the down. After a nice daily reversal day on Friday, I would expect some more follow thru to the upside, and the high on Friday does line up nicely with swing resistance on Thursday, and a break above this level does clear the path to the 1260 area, and I go into next week "expecting" this (not predicting this..lol) The downside, however, is not clear to me yet, because price was strongly rejected off the lows, and no real consolidation (balance) has formed down here yet as Fridays move was more straight down then straight up. So, if the market heads lower from here, there is still no reassurance that it will test the lows at this time, because so far this is an area of strong responsive buying. However, if a clear balance area forms in this area, and then breaks to the downside, a test of the recent lows is much more likely, at least the way I look to read things....
And that is it in a nutshell cheese.... trade the gyrations, waves ... call them what you will... they are the synthetic extensions to the straight line between the rth open and the yet to be revealed close of each session regard f9