Kudos, gentlemen! Your intelligent and personable market discussion is like a breath of fresh air amongst the pages of ET. Your presence avers the intent of this website. Thanks ...
Thats exactly how I would like it to stay. No bickering or one-lining each other. I am amazed at how this thread has taken off....it highlights the need of traders for the information that we are putting out there. As a result, I am hoping to build a core of traders to be part of a small skype group. Details on that as and when I get time to set it up.
Fib levels .... Try not to lose sight of the fact that a 50% fib is merely the centre of a channel, that is why it has an effect on price when the channel is dominant. Above 50 is bullish, below 50 is bearish in broad terms. When the upper or lower bands of a less significant channel lies on or very near the midpoint of the dominant channel, just watch what happens to price. Look at what happens on or near the midpoint of the rth high/low, after all it is just another dominant channel. Look what happens when the rth midpoint tracks the rth open. Once people begin to appreciate the power of the channel midpoints they might be inclined to put the whole fib 50 thingy completely out of their mind and devote more attention to the reality of the channels themselves. regards f9
I see your point and its a fair one, the fib was more a confluence for the support and resistance. I keep an eye on fibs as I know lots of people watch them and because of that it adds extra odds to my S/R area.
Es It is not "lots of people" who move price rather it is contracts and more specifically market order contracts. 500 people may all agree that fibs are tremendously important and place their trades accordingly only to see one strike of 1400 contracts at market move against them. Less than 12% of ES strikes account for more than 85% of contracts traded. regards f9
Let me just clarify something for myself: You're not talking about anything revolutionary, just support & resistance. You're saying that traditional indicators don't have the importance that many people ascribe to them, and that plain old support & resistance are really the key. If that's what you're saying, I completely agree - I just want to make sure that I'm not missing something. Thanks...
There is much that attracts the minds of those lesser experienced to specific lines or numbers that offer the comfort of apparent certainty. While they may have that appearance, S&R, Fib levels and Elliot waves among other nostrums do not, in actuality, provide certainty or reliability. The context I am referring to is day trading in liquid markets (eg YM, ES, CL). First, distinguish between billion dollar funds and the individual independent trader. None of you are big funds. The money lies in the gyrations. Now the aim: it is to make yourself rich (it is not to show off, knocking off a few profits here and there). For professional use of markets, forget 'trend' talk and other vague populist cults in trading. Go to where the money is. You have to utilize a market open to close. You buy the upswings and sell the downswings sequentially. If you take CL on Friday (September 5 2008) the sequence for the session's gyrations (up/down repeating 10.00 to 14.30) produced 10 macro 'legs' of minimum 45 points (ie cents). The mean average of those 10 'legs' was 102 points per 'leg'. Therefore thats some 1000 points which were on offer. This is money big time. Discipline, dedication and applying an accurate methodology are assumed. That methodology can utilize indicators applied to charts of the necessary configurations.
are you looking for the NDX and SPX specifically or the eminis? if the eminis, you can go to MyPivots and Guy updates it nightly. i'll look through my bookmarks to see if anyone updates NDX/SPX ...