Indicator for spotting trends vs. ranges

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by svrart, Dec 28, 2004.

  1. svrart

    svrart

    Hi,

    What indicators can one use to know if the market is going to be in a trend or a range?

    eg. Futures X is trending strongly up. Using other indicators, feel etc i decide that the trend is about over. Then what indicator can i look at, to know if X will be in a trading range or on a down trend?

    Please dont talk about the risks of going against a trend. My only question is - what indicator to use to tell if the future action will be a range or a trend.

    Thanks,
    Sridhar
     
  2. Just could not resist in replying.

    First Principle of Successful Trading: THE FUTURE IS UNKNOWN!

    No indicator or intellect can tell you what will happen in the future; contrary to some trading beliefs. You can only try to decide if one course of action is more probable than another. And then, there is always the possibility that you will be wrong.

    Welcome to the world of trading.

    Trend or range? Depends on your time frame. A futures or stock may be in a one year range. However, to get from the top of the range to the bottom and vice versa, it probably got there in a short term trend.

    Charles
     
  3. There are timing methods which can forecast changes in trend or ranges but those cannot tell( ahead of time ) you what will follow or direction of a price move. Those will just tell you that change is coming. When the time of the signal arrives, you must decide what do based on your confirming method.
     
  4. Truff

    Truff

    I don't think there is an indicator that can predict that. If you use the ADX with plus and minus DMI, that will at least tell you whether you are in a trend or range at the present moment. Use other indicators to make good risk reward decisions from there.
     
  5. And those glorious methods for predicting trends and ranges are ????
     
  6. Albert

    Albert

    Figure out the average range over the last ten days(weeks, months or minutes, depending on your time frame) Are you above or below the last pertinent close (maybe Friday's, yesterday's, Dec. 31st, whatever)
    If you are above the last pertinent close by more than two ranges and below the last high think "reverse". If you are above the last high think "breakout".
    If you have any money left after following this, send to ....
    Albert
     
  7. This is a lagging indicator, almost useless.
     
  8. Albert

    Albert

    All indicators except price are lagging indicators. Does that make them useless too? So you trade only price in a vacuum? Wow, Zen trading!
    Albert
     
  9. He wrote 'forecast'. A forecast cannot be lagging...


    There are timing methods which can forecast changes in trend or ranges but those cannot tell( ahead of time ) you what will follow or direction of a price move. Those will just tell you that change is coming. When the time of the signal arrives, you must decide what do based on your confirming method.
     
  10. Albert

    Albert

    he's wrong.
    Albert
     
    #10     Dec 28, 2004