India to overtake China in 2020

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Yuvrajjj, Jan 1, 2010.

  1. In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:

    India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world’s second-biggest economy, China’s export-oriented model will erode sharply — the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India’s GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China’s growth will dip to 7-8%.

    India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch’s heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.

    In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.

    India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates — a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.

    India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran’s mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.

    More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.

    China, alarmed at India’s rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.

    Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai’s suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai’s growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.
  2. Emerging markets and economic success bring pride and nationalism. "We are a rising star and we will beat you at the game."

    Which country will over take India after 2020? What comes after that?
  3. Future is like a prostitute, everyone can claim, no one can own it.
  4. Lethn


    Stuff like this honestly makes me quite happy because it helps keep all the other super powers in line. So long as they hold off World War 3 until we develop some real space travel I'm perfectly happy with any number of countries suddenly becoming a potential super power in the world.
  5. if they can get there act together and contribute to the world instead of being in a coma , on life support for the last 50 + years IT IS ABOUT TIME. but i doubt it very much too many things to overcome. but it would be nice change
  6. I'm an NRI, and I think what holds India back is the cultural attitude towards risk. As much as it's great to produce a lot of doctors and engineers, the culture needs to refocus on producing entrepreneurs.

    I don't think the Chinese have such an aversion to risk. In some ways, they're more ruthless and unbounded when it comes to profit opportunities.

    Though, I think Indians are learning from the west.
  7. Ah yes, the hubris of the indian.

    India is never going to ever catch up with the Chinese. China has built up a first world infrastructure, indians still ride on donkey carts.

    The chinese are not only smarter, they also have the great advantage of not having a institutionalized caste system . The chinese also have a strong central govt. that can dictate proper development. Democracy is over rated in these places.

    I've been to both India and China. A wealthy chinese or wealthy indian will pick up a penny from a shit hole, however the indian is the more desperate of the two. If the chinaman is hungry, he'll at least buy a little food. The indian if hungry will drink water and stay hungry.

    Both are very desperate people. Neither people can be trusted and both will remain cesspools like the open shit holes of calcutta.
  8. The Indian knows better than to buy food until he knows there's no melamine in it. The Chinaman, on the other hand, will kill himself, his children, and his pets -- if he isn't killed already on "first world infrastructure" after the warranty expires.

    The Chinese are only doing better right now because the caste system in the US is selling out the American equivalent of sudras. If you got rid of the top caste in the US, the Chinese would be forced to accept reasonable playing rules where they can't subsidize and dump into foreign markets. Just because they don't formally call it a caste in non-Indian societies doesn't mean they don't exist. Indians were smart enough to label the lunacy. Americans just read Romans 13 and accept their politicians as proxies for Jesus.

    In the long run, the world will only put up with so much and the Chinese way of doing business will be rejected in foreign markets. All that excess production capacity constructed on debt will take the country into social chaos on an order the world has never seen before.
  9. Good post.
  10. Before the mongols ran over Europe, Europeans thought Asians grew their head on chest. Of course, white man has become smarter since then, but not very far in their believes.:D
    #10     Jan 1, 2010