In his book âMind over Marketsâ, James Dalton has stated two big questions for every trader to answer: âWhich way is the market trying to go?â and âIs it doing a good job in its attempt to go that way?â. Understanding these questions is essential for profitable trading. There are many ways to answer the first of these questions, for example, Japanese Candlesticks, tape reading, S/R analysis and others. All these methods provide signals for market direction. The second question is about market timing, when to look for confirmation signal and when to ignore. I started this journal to show a new approach to market timing, which is based on forecasting important points in future. Each of such points can be either a moment when next price move begins or a moment for a price level which could be challenged later after price consolidation. Using rational mathematical model instead of classical TA, I am able to calculate these points in advance with a horizon of next trading day. I am going to post forecasted points (Eastern Time) several hours before each trading session of ES&YM futures, in order to show a power of the market timing.
The question is how strict are you going to be? If market turns at 9:56 are you going to claim you were right and pretty close? What is your +/- cushion cause I can pretty much say 10:30 AM and 90% of the time there will be a turn of sorts give or take 10 minutes.
tape reading, S/R seem to test as statistically useful. Prevailing trend also useful japanese candlestick formations seem to not be much use
Sorry to bug in, but market forecasting rarely works. The great traders are reactors, and not forecasters.