I note in Hirsch's Almanac that day after Easter is on average down in the US (nb 2005 is the latest I have). This really makes my fingers itch to keep the position over the weekend. How spread is the "knowledge" of a downbias? I think it just might turn upside down....and go up. Besides, if the holiday indicator would actually work this time, then we should see an up day in the US today (opening after our close) and this should countereffect a down monday.
I can see in local stock market chat rooms and some sentiment indicators that I keep, that this is not a very trusted rally. If we can only keep up this strength during the day, and the US don't fall back, I think we will see a very strong market next week, perhaps back up to the latest top in the cash index at 1076. Depending on when we reach it and which companies goes ex-dividend during the time, the futures contract discount might also shrink from the current 8 points. But this scenario might fall if we loose steam here. Time will tell, and is 11.42 CET.
Ok, seems like we might get a couple of points more pullback at this point, but with only an hour to go into closing, I will not wager to try to finesse this one. Instead, I need to figure out if I should lighten up some, or keep everything over the weekend, because I have almost made up my mind to stay put with something. Time is 11.56 CET.
Price is now 1042.75, down from 1045 at last post, and with hindsight, an exit and re-entry now would have been nice. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.... So, now we only have 25 minutes to closing, and we should see a bounce up. Still need to figure if I should keep all of the position, or dump some, at 12.26 CET.
I don't like the fact that the CAC, DAX and FTSE all were unchanged to lower today again. I do not mind us being the pilot fish to the upside, but they better start swimming, or we'll be left to the sharks...
Market closed at 1043.50 (high 1046 and low 1042). Made 2.25 points today on the position from yesterday, and 0.25 on the add on, which together with yesterdays profit made the week look better. Still, the whole week was down 1.75 points for me, from last fridays close. I am long over the weekend.
Looks like the US markets are turning up more in earnest today, which is good, because that might bail me out of this trade on the right side of the ledger. Even the European markets are starting to get going. Let's see how it plays out. I think the DJIA will stop dead at about 11200 today, but hopefully not turn back so much afterwards.
Looks a bit bleak again for the US indexes. Perhaps the bond market close can take a bit of pressure off and let it bounce up a bit...
Aint this a sleepy trader; the bond market closed at noon EST today! So what can we hope for know? Well, short traders wanting to go flat into the weekend perhaps. I still think the DOW and the S&P wants to close higher...
The US markets were down yesterday, and so was Japan. Japan gained as much as it lost yesterday though, so things are getting back to where they were before the holiday. Usually, we would see hesitancy this morning, perhaps up to half a percent decline, before people realise that they are trading in the wrong direction and bid it back up. Since I am fully committed on the long side, I have to watch it from the sidelines. Still think that we can get a good pop early in the week. Not so sure about the remainder of it any longer. Time is 08.38 CET.