Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. NoahA

    NoahA

    Absolutely.. I was just being funny. He has many times in the past held through bigger drawdowns and also added. It's of course good to follow rules, but let's face it, sometimes you see the rules cost you money more often than they save you, so finding the sweet spot is tricky.
     
    #961     May 9, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    The reality is, the more the win rate approaches 50/50 the harder it is to be disciplined and follow the rule. I could see why OP wants to automate, no second guessing.

    Been there done that. Why I stopped live trade and went back to paper. It was difficult to not second guessing.
     
    #962     May 10, 2024
  3. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #963     May 10, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #964     May 13, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #965     May 14, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I'm VERY tempted to just change the rule just slightly to add on 1st trade. Just ONCE!.

    BUT I say to myself, "listen asshole, just follow the rules for 3 months and see where you end up at"...

    So i'm going to just let it be, till end of July and see where my tick tally will be. I can do this damn it
     
    #966     May 14, 2024
  7. NoahA

    NoahA

    I understand the frustration. Is it possible to open a second account, move half the money, and trade 1 contract in each account under 2 different sets of rules? 3 months is a long time to verify the validity of a setup, and it would suck to learn that just that one small change could help.

    I think of it like a drug study. You're running different doses of drug at the same time, and after three months you would see which dose worked best.
     
    #967     May 14, 2024
    Sprout likes this.
  8. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    total trades 8

    ticks tally:
    today 108
    total 326

    win 62.5%
    loss 37.5%
    avg win 118.6
    avg loss 89


    upload_2024-5-15_7-49-34.png
     
    #968     May 15, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  9. Sprout

    Sprout

    smart way to arb time
     
    #969     May 15, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  10. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I'm convinced averaging in is not for me as time goes. The frequent wins is a deception. I'll take the max loss when i do lose, and when i pick the right spots, I have smaller position (unless i average up).

    Based on my bot days, breakout with 1:1 RR gave me about 47-48% win rate. So the market is inherently mean reverting.
    ticks tally:
    today -109
    total 217


    upload_2024-5-16_8-35-35.png
     
    #970     May 16, 2024