Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. hilmy83

    hilmy83


    My trading approach in a nutshell:

    1. Fade the range
    2. NO MORE REVERSES
    3. Reduce position when trade is in the red
    4. Hold position till target when trade is in the green

    upload_2024-4-24_10-8-51.png
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    I think my mae/mfe probability is about 50/50. If that's the case, I should net +ev over large enough sample size.
     
    #941     Apr 24, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  2. NoahA

    NoahA

    What I like about you is that you have balls of steel! Like I have no idea how you can sit through price going against you so much and only exit 1 contract at a loss and still hold one more, and then close it out for a great profit!

    For me, when price came down to 17667, not only was that the previous day high, but also the overnight low since right at the beginning of the session is turned here. That obvious V recovery was also quite obvious a few bars later, and you still could have closed the 2 contracts for a nice profit. Now I know its all hindsight trading, but in addition to your posted trading approach rule set, I think taking positions or exiting positions at key areas must be added as well.

    But once again, you're killing it, and I'm not, so what do I know. My only question though is about your 50/50 stat you mention. If this was the case, shouldn't we already see more losing days? I think your stats are way better for your entries, and the only thing that will perhaps hold you back, based on what I saw in the past trades, is the scaling into a loser and not exiting a trade that isn't working. Like here, that short should have been closed much sooner, way before it turned into a loss for one of those contracts.
     
    #942     Apr 24, 2024
    hilmy83 likes this.
  3. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Yes I'm also going to stop scaling into losing trades.

    Maybe I should've listened to a fellow graduate

    upload_2024-4-24_13-9-28.png
     
    #943     Apr 24, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    upload_2024-4-25_7-33-4.png
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    #944     Apr 25, 2024
    NoahA and hayseed like this.
  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I keep going back and forth in my head whether to scale in or not. Maybe the best of both world is do partial and have hard exit.

    I don't think I can trade reversion with just one single entry
     
    #945     Apr 25, 2024
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  7. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    Out of curiosity, how would you rate this performance? Of course you made $1.3k, so that is awesome. But you did scale into a loser (and I'm not suggesting this is always bad, just pointing it out), and by 4:30, it was obvious that there were lower highs and lower lows, so it sure appeared as if the momentum was down. So I'm just curious to ask if you had solid reasons for why you still thought it would turn around, or what even made you confident to scale in?

    It seems like the strategy is:

    1. take a trade
    2. if it goes against you, add more
    3. wait for a profitable exit

    This of course works well, and your entries are clearly better than average or else you would have gotten hit with a big loss way more often than you have so far, but I'm sure a big loss is coming again.

    But you know, I'm not even saying what you're doing is wrong. I think maybe trading could be as simple as this, and especially if a few big losses are factored in. It seems to work out for you way more often than it should, and I'm scratching my head trying to figure out why... LOL
     
    #948     Apr 29, 2024
    p0box4 and rb7 like this.
  9. hilmy83

    hilmy83


    upload_2024-4-30_9-3-38.png
    upload_2024-4-30_9-4-35.png


    Buy low, sell high; flip when necessary.
    I don't know what else to say.
     
    #949     Apr 30, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  10. hilmy83

    hilmy83


    No trades today, AMP margins up.

    For Apr 2024: +$18,975

    YTD is just about +12%

    I'm thinking taking some funds out and put into CC ETFs. At least I won't risk 100% in trading. To be quiet honest, manual trading takes way too much effort. Half the time I'm half awake; it's like trading drunk. I miss the bot days.

    Maybe this is the end of this journal until I figure out how to get back to auto trading again....





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    #950     May 1, 2024
    ironchef, NoahA and hayseed like this.