Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #861     Jan 29, 2024
    shuraver and NoahA like this.
  2. hilmy83

    hilmy83


    For January I added a total of $13k to the account to bring to $50k so that I could fast track trading the NQ.
    I haven't traded NQ since 2020!

    December pnl +$2500

    TWR for this month is 5.08%
    NDX gained 1.85%
    SPX gained 1.66%

    So @Overnight , I'm waiting on your cash deposit so I can trade your money and take you out of your trading misery...

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    Last edited: Feb 1, 2024
    #862     Feb 1, 2024
    SimpleMeLike and Relentless like this.
  3. hilmy83

    hilmy83

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    #863     Feb 1, 2024
  4. SteveH

    SteveH

    Consider tracking your avg points per day in the NQ. Frees your mind from the money. Gives you confidence knowing it's shown to be bounded in a comfortable, positive range over the long-term. It "scales" to 10 contracts, no problem.

    The first 5 min and 60 min avg ranges on the NQ are excellent benchmarks from which to measure your system's capabilities. A running average of 22 days is very informative.
     
    #864     Feb 2, 2024
    ubo likes this.
  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I make table scraps after fees/commissions.

    My per trade win rate is bout 68%

    Risk of ruin comes out to be 2.3%

    At 97% daily win rate, my probability of 2 consecutive losers is 0.09% (about 1 event in a year)

    Any day that triggers the maximum loss will take me back 3-4 months.

    Didn't have a loss last year (if the bot worked per rules). So i'm due this yer

    How's that for trading outside the box :D
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2024
    #865     Feb 2, 2024
    SimpleMeLike, ubo and shuraver like this.
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83


    Feb pnl: +$2210
    feb return: 4.26%
    ndx: 5.29%
    spx: 5.10%

    YTD return: 9.56%
    NDX: 7.24%
    SPX: 6.84%

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    #866     Mar 1, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  7. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    My ge66 raider got completely fried after running games at 95c for couple of months. I suspect the paste needed replacing. Experienced multiple blue screens. Didn't feel like opening it up and dismantling it.

    Had to get an emergency rig. I think I might go back to desktop setup for a while since it's easier to fix and upgrade
    ASUS - ROG Gaming Desktop - Intel Core i7-13700KF - 32GB Memory - NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4060Ti - 1TB SSD - Black
    PXL_20240320_022755164.jpg
     
    #867     Mar 19, 2024
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    But way more than a BIG Mac. :D
     
    #868     Mar 24, 2024
  9. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Well, the strategy finally crapped out. Everything was working as per the trading plan. This strategy will have a big loss and will take months to recover. In the backtests, I've had max +900 days of recovery time. Even though it looked like a steady strategy, mentally that would probably drive me crazy to sit through that. So I'm going to tweak the risk a little bit to figure out how to balance income with the risk:


    Loss happened the week of 3/18. So the year down about -25%. Good thing for that max stop loss though..sheesh

    upload_2024-3-29_8-54-23.png

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    #869     Mar 29, 2024
  10. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I think there is a sweet spot between trading the anticipated breakout and when trading the anticipated range move.

    I know that my current strategy will crap out if the range last too long.

    But if I can somehow jump on the range after couple of breakout failures, that may help avoid range loss (assuming range will continue at that point and not just final break).
     
    #870     Mar 29, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.