Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  2. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I'm going to start doing only monthly updates next year.

    With the monthly, I will only do the performance comparison with the benchmark NDX since I only trade the nasdaq futures.

    I will also add the standard stats using my monthly performance vs NDX.

    Here are the raw monthy performance:

    upload_2023-12-27_8-39-44.png

    These monthly numbers should be correct, if not let me know and I can show the formulas that I used.

    upload_2023-12-27_8-49-22.png

    To be honest, this year was about testing and fixing errors. I started out this year backtesting the right settings and traded pretty much everything in the micros (dax, mnq,mes,mym,m2k, mgc,mcl). That didnt go well until I settled on the nasdaq when i did more tests and saw that it gave the most consistent results. I jumped back and forth betwen MT5 and QT, before settling on MT5.

    But I think the overall down days due to errors and bad trading balance out the positive outliers due to errors. The average works out to over 5%. My backtests showed about 4-5% monthy.
     
    #822     Dec 27, 2023
  3. shuraver

    shuraver

    How can you have down months when you showed only positive (or zero) days?

    Edit: nvm, those were likely due to the error trades.
     
    #823     Dec 27, 2023
  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    The graph shows when I decided to trade nasdaq exlusively, which i would consider my "final version".

    If you go back to January, you'll see a bunch of backtests and different markets I traded to get a feel for the bot.

    The down months (jan and november) and the + outliers pretty much balance themselves out.
     
    #824     Dec 27, 2023
    shuraver likes this.
  5. surfista

    surfista

    hilmy83,
    You suggested that your backtesting was helpful.
    Can you identify the backtesting platform that you used and other platforms that you think could also be useful in defining & refining an intraday trading strategy in the eminis?
    thanks

     
    #825     Dec 27, 2023
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  7. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  8. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I used MT5 to backtest and to run the bot right now.
     
    #828     Dec 29, 2023
    surfista likes this.
  9. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    corrected some calculations and made it simpler (as of 11/30/23):

    upload_2023-12-29_8-31-42.png
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2023
    #829     Dec 29, 2023
  10. Mo06

    Mo06

    How does the $ 36,631.73 figure in post 827 correspond to $ 59.903.54 profits and $ 44,788.35 losses (net $ v15,115.19) in post 829 ?

    Apologies if you've already covered this.
     
    #830     Dec 30, 2023