Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  2. Mo06

    Mo06

    Just checking how it's going... the answer is well.
    That green line sure is steady.
     
    #662     Oct 18, 2023
  3. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I'm thinking a lot about being a CTA lately and run a managed futures fund. The strategy would be comprised of:

    Algo: 20% algo (NQ focus)
    Net long index: 80% NQ long bias (with ES hedge to a certain point).

    My alpha will come from 2 strategies:
    • Net long NQ: NQ will usually far outpace ES in bull markets (or volatile recovery).
    • Algo: this will yield around 10% gain for overall portfolio.
    Scenarios:
    1. In strong bull markets (2023), my long NQ will usually outpace short ES (even if the positions are equal)
    2. In bull recovery (2020), my NQ positions (from DCA)>ES short positions leading to greater recovery in NQ.
    3. In bear markets (2008), my overall portfolio should be about neutral to negative (but it should be outperforming long equity portfolio.
    4. In sideways market, my portfolio should be about neutral
    All the while, my 20% algo position is running. This should improve performance in sideways or bearish markets.

    Worst case scenario (<1% chance) I will lose 10% on the algo outright on this, but I believe it can recover.
     
    #664     Oct 18, 2023
  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    To make this work based on the percentages I set for each strategy, I would need 250k
    50k for algo
    200k for long index

    So it'll be a while :D

    Maybe I can convince the wife to contribute , after all she's using my algo free of charge!
     
    #665     Oct 18, 2023
  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Been thinking about futures options. Tempted to try it out. Unfortunately, cna't do it through MT5, so looking at CQG platform for now.

    If I sell 1 ATM MNQ put expiring tomorrow: I think the credit will be 85.5x0.5 (tick) = or $42.75?



    upload_2023-10-18_14-15-52.png
     
    #666     Oct 18, 2023
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    Can't you do it through QT? (You have it, so are familiar with it.)
     
    #667     Oct 18, 2023
    hilmy83 likes this.
  8. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Noice

    Feel like a noob in a candy store..

    upload_2023-10-18_17-57-20.png
     
    #668     Oct 18, 2023
  9. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    well this blows....

    basically simple long call/put

    that's not even a level 1 option access.

    upload_2023-10-18_20-11-57.png
     
    #669     Oct 18, 2023
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Back long ago I remember AMP having a separate section in account management for requesting options permissions, and there was a separate, separate section about how many limbs you had to send them to enable options selling. Have no idea where that all is now after their website updates since then.
     
    #670     Oct 18, 2023