Index futures automation

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hilmy83, Jul 3, 2022.

Can a fully automated trading strategy work in the long run?

  1. YES!

    56 vote(s)
    66.7%
  2. Hell naw.

    15 vote(s)
    17.9%
  3. I don't know, I got my own trading to worry about.

    13 vote(s)
    15.5%
  1. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #381     Jun 2, 2023
  2. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #382     Jun 5, 2023
  3. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  4. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    Last edited: Jun 9, 2023
    #386     Jun 9, 2023
  7. Mo06

    Mo06

    Impressively consistent results.

    Can I ask a question or three ?

    I gather all trades are intraday trades.

    How many trades (on average) does the system execute a day ?

    Are there days when no trades are taken ?

    What is the percentage long vs short trades ?

    How long is a typical trade duration, max and min ?

    What sort of market conditions would / do produce higher returns - range bound / volatile / crazy rally / huge sell - off ?
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2023
    #387     Jun 10, 2023
  8. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    I don't trade on FOMC days. But for the rest of your questions, maybe these stats will answer them (since i started tracking for the final version 2/20/23).

    My strategy is based on volatility. Range bound market will kill me, or at least give me a lot of breakevens. I still haven't quite figured out what my true risk of ruin probability is.

    upload_2023-6-10_12-53-46.png

    upload_2023-6-10_13-0-37.png

    upload_2023-6-10_12-54-17.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2023
    #388     Jun 10, 2023
    shuraver, MACD, NoahA and 2 others like this.
  9. Mo06

    Mo06

    OK, interesting, I had the idea that your system traded a lot more than a handful of trades per day. Seven trades is not a lot at all.

    Why does the trades/day chart only have 31 bars ? I believe your system has been trading since 21 Feb.

    I understand it's a variation on an opening range breakout system, I first heard about this strategy from a book by Jake Bernstein - the 30 min breakout strategy.
    Very simple - buy/sell the breakout of the first 30 min range.

    I wrote an indicator for MT4 for this strategy, showing the range and an alert for a breakout that I still use on my charts. I find it handy.

    I don't know if you know Tom Hugaard, he has a Telegram group where he trades live.
    He trades a strategy he calls 'The School Run', which is basically the same as the 30 min breakout (he got a bit annoyed when I suggested it was the same strategy, ha ha)..
    He trades quite large amounts, not unusual to see him up/down 40,000 GBP in a day. I believe he is very profitable. His trades are 100% discretionary.

    What is really amazing with your results is you don't have any losing days, I can't quite get my head around that. Good luck anyway (not that you seem to need it.)
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2023
    #389     Jun 11, 2023
  10. monet

    monet

    I had the same thought.

    With average consecutive losses = 2 and average trades per day usually 2-3, it's unlikely two consecutive losing trades haven't occurred on the same day. Or am I reading that wrong?
     
    #390     Jun 11, 2023