it doesnt matter right now. at this point the market has decided that the fed is done until it gets another data point to change that mindset .
Rebuilding and restocking all those flooded homes may actually give gdp growth. Though an extra million may be unemployed in the short term.
I tell ya, there's nothing like high oil prices, rising interest rates and a massive natural disaster to send the bears packing! Woo Hoo, let's nuke California and break out for a few hundred points on the S&P! Keynes, you da man. Irrational and solvent all the way.
fed in my opinion is not even close to being done --- but "measured pace" wording change could be what everyone will be looking for. also the inflation speak of the next fed announcement could be a triggering point.
My perspective on this is that the hurricane has caused the following: - large insurance costs - disruption in oil & gas drilling/pumping in Gulf of Mexico - disruption in refinining oil into gasoline, jet fuel, etc. - big freaking mess in the affected area I think that the Gulf of Mexico problems will be relatively minor and we'll be back to business as usual soon, the news on this front has been pretty good so far. Only potential issue here is future hurricanes. Insurance costs are an issue for the insurance/re-insurance industry, but I would suspect that this issue is covered. September 11 was a new event for the industry, but I'm pretty sure they take hurricanes into consideration when working out premiums on a company-wide level. Insurance premiums could of course be higher in the future if the losses are high enough. I think that the disruption in gasoline pipelines and refining are the biggest short-term issue, and we're seeing a spike in prices as a result (as well as shortages looming in particular areas due to infrastructure issues), but I expect the worst of this to be a relatively short-term issue. Hopefully this will light a fire under the US Government's ass to make establishment of new refining capacity an important issue. Hopefully it will also give those that drive gas guzzling monsters some pause to consider more fuel efficient vehicles in the future. As for the big mess in the affected area, the key issue in the region is the port, and I expect that this will be one of the highest priorities in damage assessment/repair. Oil imports will take a hit, but I think that this has been counteracted in the short term by Bush's decision to tap the strategic petroleum reserve. Aside from the port issue and the gas refining issue, I don't view this hurricane as something that is going to have a long-term massive impact on the economy of the US, but it will cause some short term pain at the gas pump. I think that this is part of why the markets have largely shrugged this off. We're in the modern age of rapid info access too, so this isn't like the stock market selloff described in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", where it took a fair bit of time for the full info to really hit the wires regarding the San Francisco earthquake. Most importantly, I think that the market is bullish overall, right or wrong. Two reasons for this: - we've actually recently seen some very nice quarters announced, particularly in techs. - second (and most importantly), the markets have now shrugged off two terrorist bombings and a fairly significant natural disaster during the past couple of months without a significant selloff. It's generally a bullish sign when bad news is largely ignored, whether or not this actually makes logical sense, the markets are quite bullish.