Well, 3:40 am et and the 844 already hit! Did I make money off of it NO! Did it happen? YES! Did it prove a point? Absolutely...
well Mr Quant, you do have a point. Even weather forecast has a chart. Could you show us your chart. All lectures but no charts makes traders misinformed.
If you like to see a price chart, I;ll be happy to accomodate but if you'd like to see THE chart I use to make these projections? I don't think so! but nice try anyways...
1) fine.... any chart to prove your point will do... 2) now, make another prediction for next 3 trading sessions and post the relevant 3 charts (any type of charts) 3) I dont wish to know your secret, just wish to know that you have proven your points 4) FYI, i have a secret 'weapon' too.
actually, it proved nothing. let me expand... last night, i was damn sure (akin to a prediction) that the DAX would fall. i shorted and got caught in the shit storm caused by the motherfucking (bitter, yep!) surprise 175 bp cut in sweden. horrific trade management coupled with unrivaled stupidity and, boom, i was down 32,000. max pain- fucked and out. re-entered short but got spooked out of any size. shorted perfectly after the ECB cut only 75 BP's but, shellshocked, only had one contract on by then. traded all fucking night to get back to 'only' down 14,000. dax futures down ~3% on the day. me down 14m. me dead right on my prediction. correlation between predictions and trading REAL money: precisely dick. you sound awfully young (god, i hope you are the way you go on and on). those who have traded or been in the market for years (decades, in my case) know the value of 'predictions'. we also know being right is even more useless- unless you capitalize. if you attempt to argue against my points: youa re wrong. sorry, i am right. every trader and investor will agree with me. anyone who disagrees is a paper trader or a troll. of ivan deletes this post- then he's a bigger idiot than i already think he is. post blotters showing the practical application and follow thru of your predictions and you will get what you are after (respect). of course, if you're good enough to predict 77 point moves and actually capture those 77 points with real money.... then you won't give a shit about what anyone thinks on ET, and it will never even occur to you to post such nonsense...
What he said. In fact I've done the same thing in the past. "Anticipated", (predicted) whatever you want to call it, the high of the day within ticks and the subsequent move and still lost money. Had I simply traded what was happening with no preconceived notions I would have come out ahead.
You've only been here since July 2008 assuming you have had no prior aliases. Thus, your still a newbie at ET via not understanding how the forum here actually works versus how we want it to work. * Don't make the mistake of confusing the largest discussion forum based upon number of members with the largest quality of members based upon low noise level. ET is not near the top when it comes to the measurement of the largest quality of members. There's a reason why former good contributers are posting actively elsewhere (forums, chat rooms, blogs et cetera). Thus, at one time in the distant past...yes...it was a top forum when measuring quality (not quantity) of members. * I'll repeat, you can accomplish every thing you want in a more controlled environment and EliteTrader.com is not such a place for such. * Trashing of threads and/or twisting of facts is common place here at ET... It will continue regardless if you or I don't want it to continue and regardless to any collective efforts to stop such (many have tried in the past and failed miserably). Therefore, you and I cannot very easily get ET back on track. Only Baron (ET owner) can do such via re-wiring the registration process, re-designing the forum, fairly enforcing TOU policy violations for all members et cetera. However, he has made it clear in several posts in feedback such will not occur (not his exact words) because the goal is quantity of members... Due to the fact this is a site that generates income for him via the sponsors. Simply, controversy or rising noise level creates increased usage hits that easily beats top educational threads... Giving sponsors the illusion their ads are being viewed more when in reality most members problably are using browser add-ons that prevents seeing the ads (I do). Therefore, if you expect things to improve... Baron will need to make this site a pay to join membership. That ain't gonna happen and such a request has been turned down ever since I first became a member. Reminder: Many other better locations for what you want to do. You picked one of the worst places for such. This is a great place for entertainment, venting even though I myself have contributed a few educational posts in the past (never again until Baron changes things). P.S. Someone once showed a correlated chart of the market (economy) and world crisis versus the quality of posting at EliteTrader.com It was funny but looked scary factual as it traversed on a chart from month to month since ET birth. If I find it again...I'll post the link to the message post. Mark
The point being, it worked because you didn't put the trade on. Butterfly flaps its wings etc. "Stops and DD if any at discretion" kills it really -- on paper everyone has balls of stone. But you go ahead and trade it til it breaks.
NihabaAshi(Mark), Sad but, true every point you have brought up! I wish there were a by invitation/reference Forum whereby if the member banned, it would cost the introducing member tooâ¦etc. Illiquid, Quite true all your points too but still it does not take away anything from a True Prediction. Had I deep pockets, which hundreds of thousands do in this Biz do, I would have traded both sides simultaneously with no worries, and with 100% success! Because the calls are 100% true, any DD would have just created additional opportunity to average and place more trades on?!
BTW, here's another thread where I also accurately predicted more than a couple of hundred points and recently too and with all the controversies too. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=140765&perpage=6&pagenumber=1