increasing, decreasing, continuing and changing

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by esjockey, May 20, 2009.

  1. esjockey


    Jack - attached is a compilation of your lost groundwork posts in response to gucci's bad day - in case you wish to pick up where you left off.
  2. Thanks for helping us out.

    The thread title is very thoughtful; I'll post the whole Hypothesis set which contains the 16 words so we all are on the same page.

    In a Boolean Statement we have:

    If the volume is increasing, then the price trend will be continuing.

    If the volume is decreasing, then the price trend wil be changing.

    I see there is more than 16 words as stated. All but four are identical. This "like kind" is a Keynesian facet of stting up a high utility Paradigm. So we have that and we have many other things as well. Being practical is our thrust however.

    This hypothesis set is very old and followed the Dow Theory at the time of the industrial revolution when markets becagan to handle the corporations that became the basis of the free enterprise system given to us all for our benefit.

    Today the shift from using materials to make things to services for an improved life style has already shifted.

    The Sullivan principle has already been accepted and established relative to electronic communications.

    Yesterday, 29MAY09, was important. As you saw the 19th carried over into the 20th and shortly there after we pick off point 1 of a short that went through S later in the day. To day the 20th has been carried over into the 21st.

    I did not do my usual annual forcast in late December (2008) for the next year (2009). I usually state the locus of the price legs for the year in terms of price and time along with the volume gaussians which drive the legs.

    With the current permissions to not have a financial requirement for transparency or be responsible in a regulatory manner, we, the world, are in a place where there is the greatest, ever, opportunity to apply TA to make money. That is, the past theories of finance have been abbrogated by not maintaining the foundation upon which they were based. Too bad; short cuts were taken.

    Seven factors are combining to require strong efforts to deal with shakey foundations: Banking, Wall St, Auto Industry, SS having no resourses, Healthcare same plus pandemic next Fall, the environmental global warming, etc, and permanent terrorism (2 wars now).

    I feel fortunate to be independent of thse happenings and I feel fortunate to have worked the turf that was involved in putting in the fixes for these areas in the past. This time around, pool extraction will be of great service for operating to do the fixes that are required.

    I have to answer 7 questions by 27MAY09 for the IRS. One of them (number 2. f. ) is: "Please explain how local problems that are solved can be used as a model for solving the same problem in other communities"

    A lot of people will not have jobs, homes, retirement, healthcare, transportation and much clothing, food or good living conditions. This is not new to the world but it will become much more far reaching as people here get serious about making money and helping others out.

    Historically, the EOP has entered into the difficulties of others to form a third party. Kennedy did it with labor and business and we have the current fallout of our larger businesses. Today Obama has done it with respect to banking and people's credit; there will be serious fallout in the future. The third "3 way" will happen also; it will include an EOP thrust into people and their quality of life. EOP means Executive Office of the President (202-456-1414).

    H1N1 , lethally, visited Tucson yesterday and more is to come. Even not during the regular flu season, weakened people of any age are at risk.

    Gucci will start with 1 contract and go to 10 digits, over time, and run three types of accounts: SCT, PVT and SSR.

    To build the mind to build wealth, the easy path is to trade stocks in PVT first. Then take surplus capital, temporarily from PVT to begin with one contracts in SCT. Finally and the SCT builds capital, sweeping it weekly into PVT occurs. As PVT gets full, then it is necessary to add the lower money velocity, SSR trading to the mix.

    Fortunately, over the years, trading at the capacity of SCT and PVT has been put on the record. SSR has no limits.

    This effort is easy for me to do since I am just using materials that will appear in books or be referenced in books. They will be given to users of the three approaches.

    I will post some background illustrations and spend a little time getting the key reference page shortcuts up front and in this beginning.
    Sprout likes this.
  3. ehorn


    Great thread title... Sure caught my eye and felt like a familiar friend :)
  4. Implication is NOT a Boolean statement OR a Boolean Operation.

    Bo AND Zo
  5. vikana

    vikana Moderator

    Before this thread has a chance to degenerate, let me remind the participants that this forum is about Strategy Trading.

    This is not the place for insults or general pseudo philosophical musings. Those belong in chit chat.
  6. What you are saying is that "for YOU" it isn't.

    For others it is the heart of money making. Go to the thread you posted in with Vince and the boys. There you see others with your viewpoint, too. Too bad for all of you.

    be happy.
  7. Just to follow up on the Hypothesis Set (HS) and its parametric measure (PM).

    In strategic trading the objective is to have a clear and comprehensive HS and to take the advantages offered by Logic Theory (LT) vis a vis Carnap, et al in selecting the HS with a minumum of priors (P's) and have the HS be of like kind (Keynesian).

    All four key words have the IDENTICAL PM. We see it is velocity.

    I am not going into "funny maths" here since this is ET and it is moderated accordingly.

    Using a PM that applies to all parts of the HS and in the same manner is an achievement.

    There are thre priors which are very, fortunately very pragmatic as well.

    I will spell them out and provide examples.

    1. Stay on the right side of the market all the time.

    The HS and its PM provide for that. So these combined are a paradigm and it has been named the Pool Extraction Paradigm (PEP).

    Here is an example of a Stark top 50 200 to 300 miliion dollar fund that is traded with an automated TA algorithm.

    As you see it lacks theability to stay on the right side of the market at all times.

    Sprout likes this.
  8. What we see here is a cyclical chart that trades in commodities of two types or classes and includes up to 100 different global commodities as possibilities.

    Why doesn't this automated TA programmed algorithm stay on the right side of the market and is such a reliable loser as it is seasonally.

    Obviously the HS and its PM is not up to par.

    What kind of measurements are we including in PEP that are missing in this fund algorithm?

    We have mutually exclusive and binary expressed hypotheses. The binary expression is in terms of velocity.

    What tools can we use to take the measures of velocities in the variables? We can call them Bo and Zo tools. Bo for one variable and Zo for the other.

    What do we want to know to trade?

    1. The right side. We have two sides. For the RESULT of each hypothesis we deal with Price.

    2. The right side of the market is not a signal. the right side of the market is a condition and it is dictated by one and only one of the hypotheses.

    3. Volume is the variable that dictates the CONDITION of the right side of the market.

    As you see some MONTHS are wrong on the chart of this Stark top 50 fund. For us this is not very close to our trading reality. we do not have drawdown not off times simply because we make it our business to know what the right side of the market is and how this CONDITION IS GOING ALONG AS MEASURED ONLY IN THE PRESENT.

  9. SK0


    Thanks for re-starting the thread.
  10. SK0


    What is the meaning of FBO in the pvt rules?

    #10     May 26, 2009