Increases in CO2 - Causes Cooling

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 12, 2014.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    And I can blow you off. See how that works?

    Are your kids any more mature than you are?
     
    #981     Sep 26, 2014
  2. DHOHHI

    DHOHHI

    Wow jem ... looks like an online offer for a blow job!! Judy Garland would be proud.
     
    #982     Sep 26, 2014
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Speaking of maturity . . .
     
    #983     Sep 26, 2014
  4. jem

    jem

    lets get back to issues.

    If one leftist here produces science that man made co2 causes warming... I will take db off the no fly list.

    If not science is presented that man made co2 caues warming... then I will put fraudcurrents on the no fly list for this thread.

    We have grown weary of the useless derail and distract strategy employed by agw nutters.
    its time for you nutters to produce science not b.s. political consensus crap.
     
    #984     Sep 26, 2014
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    :rolleyes:
     
    #985     Sep 26, 2014
  6. jem

    jem

    [​IMG]


    Eric Worrall writes:

    Based on the current rate of Antarctic ice growth, how long until an ice bridge forms between South America and Antarctica?

    Lets start with a simplification – if you squint hard Antarctica is a circle. Antarctica, according to Wikipedia, is 14 million square miles. Sea ice this year covered 20 million square miles. So what is the radius of a 34 million square mile circle?

    area = PI x radius ^ 2

    so

    (34,000,000 / PI) ^ 0.5 = 3289 miles

    So the radius of our “circular” Antarctica is approximately 3289 miles.

    According to Wikipedia, the distance between Antarctica and South America is 500 miles.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_Passage So we need to calculate, what is the perfectly circular volume of sea ice required to increase the radius by another 500 miles?

    Using our area calculation,

    Area = PI x radius ^ 2

    Area = PI * (3289 + 500) ^ 2 = 45 million square miles.

    Since 34 million square miles (the land area of Antarctica + sea ice) is already taken, to increase the radius of Antarctica enough to close the gap, ice growth needs to fill in another 11 million square miles.

    At say 300,000 square miles growth per year (lets not forget, this year busted records by 600,000 square miles), and via my drastically simplified calculation, we could expect Antarctic ice to close the Drake passage in 36 years – by 2050.

    Interestingly 2055 – 2060 is the peak of the coming Little Ice Age event predicted by Dr. Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research sector of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ astronomical observatory, in his press release in 2006.

    http://en.ria.ru/russia/20060825/53143686.html

    This is a very rough calculation, so please don’t take it as a firm prediction – I am most definitely not a polar ice or ocean expert. There are many other factors, such as the brutal winds and currents which blast through the Drake Passage, which would likely impede the formation of sea ice. On the other hand, the growth of ice would increase the albedo of an enormous area of ocean, causing more sunlight to be reflected back into space – though as we are talking about polar ocean, it doesn’t receive much sunlight to start with.
    Story Title:
    One line summary of story: The growth of Antarctic ice

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/...ng-until-antarctic-ice-touches-south-america/
     
    #986     Sep 26, 2014
  7. All the sea ice talk aside, it is quite clear that really when it comes to Antarctic ice and sea levels, sea ice is not the most important thing to measure. In Antarctica, the largest and most important ice mass is the land ice of the West Antarctic and East Antarctic ice sheets.

    Therefore, how is Antarctic land ice doing?

    [​IMG]
    Figure 2: Estimates of total Antarctic land ice changes and approximate sea level contributions using a combination of different measurement techniques (Shepherd, 2012). Shaded areas represent the estimate uncertainty (1-sigma).

    Estimates of recent changes in Antarctic land ice (Figure 2, bottom panel) show anincreasing contribution to sea level with time, although not as fast a rate or acceleration as Greenland. Between 1992 and 2011, the Antarctic Ice Sheets overall lost 1350 giga-tonnes (Gt) or 1,350,000,000,000 tonnes into the oceans, at an average rate of 70 Gt per year (Gt/yr). Because a reduction in mass of 360 Gt/year represents an annual global-average sea level rise of 1 mm, these estimates equate to an increase in global-average sea levels by 0.19 mm/yr.

    There is variation between regions within Antarctica (Figure 2, top panel), with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet losing ice mass, and with an increasing rate. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is growing slightly over this period but not enough to offset the other losses. There are of course uncertainties in the estimation methods but independent data from multiple measurement techniques (explained here) all show the same thing, Antarctica is losing land ice as a whole, and these losses are accelerating quickly.
     
    #987     Sep 26, 2014
  8. jem

    jem

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29312320


    This austral winter will be the third year in a row that sea-ice extent has reached a satellite-era maximum, and it is the first time that this record has jumped above 20 million sq km.

    Traditionally, the greatest cover is not reached until early October, so there should be time for the south to accumulate even more marine cover.

    But scientists are careful not to make equal and opposite comparisons for what is happening at the two poles.

    The regions' geographies are quite different. The Arctic is in large part an ocean enclosed by land, whereas the Antarctic is a land mass totally surrounded by ocean.

    What is more, the southern pole feels the influence of three great oceans - the Pacific, the Atlantic and the Indian.

    Many of the ice behaviours and responses are peculiar as a consequence.

    Low pressure
     
    #988     Sep 26, 2014
  9. jem

    jem

    [​IMG]

    Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses


    Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui; Brenner, Anita; Bromwich, David

    Abstract:


    During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry.

    Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses.

    Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate warming, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

    Click to View PDF File [PDF Size: 256 KB]

    Looks like “Skeptical Science” will have to update their reliance on the “Cophagen Diagnosis” as well as their claim of “Antarctica is losing land ice as a whole, and these losses are accelerating quickly.”:
     
    #989     Sep 26, 2014
  10. jem

    jem

    Unfortunately, the bottom line is that this all a guess because the continent has been rising since the last ice age and we really don't know how much is rise and how much is loss.


    http://notrickszone.com/2013/06/15/...ly-than-thought-another-scare-bites-the-dust/
    Antarctic Ice Sheet Indeed Melting Slower Than Originally Thought
    By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning (translated, edited by P Gosselin)

    We often read that the ice caps are melting faster than ever and that sea level rise has accelerated over the last decades. It is feared that sea level could be 2 mters higher by the year 2100. It is true that a majority of water stored on land as ice is located in the Antarctic ice sheet. If it melted completely, sea level would rise 60-65 m .

    Luckily today we have satellites to permanently monitor the ice caps on Earth. And so far over the years, we have collected a good amount of data. Indeed it is only necessary to measure in detail the height of the ice cap over the continent and then automatically compute an ice volume. From the change, one could then calculate the melt rate.

    But things aren’t quite that easy. When the last ice age ended 12,000 years ago, part of the Antarctic ice thawed. This reduced the load on the continent and thus allowed it to rise like an unloaded cargo ship – a process that is still taking place today . This is called glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). This value itself is not easy to determine. The uncertainty here is estimated to be 50-150 billion tons per year (gigatons/year). That’s no chicken feed – especially if you consider that the melt rate assumed so far is only 26 gigatons per year . Here we see that the uncertainty is multiple times more than the actual data signal itself. That hardly induces much confidence in the results.

    An international research team led by Erik Ivins of the Jet Propulsion Lab of Pasadena, California has taken a closer look at the GIA-correction and has reworked the data. They just recently published the results in the Journal of Geophysical Research . Based on data of the last decade, they’ve determined that the Antarctic ice melt represents in the worst case an amount of o.16 mm/year in terms of global sea level rise. That is signficantly less than what the IPCC proposed in its 2007 climate report. Back then the IPCC propoosed a sea level rise contribution by Antarctica in the worst case of 0.56 mm per year, see Table SPM1 of IPCC AR4).

    - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/06/15/...er-scare-bites-the-dust/#sthash.iYK0QJKx.dpuf
     
    #990     Sep 26, 2014