1) The models of the atmosphere temps were never expected to have high resolution or short term predictive abilities. 2) The important thing is that the earth is gaining heat even faster than before, most of it is temporarily going into the oceans. Jerm, you may have heard about them. They are very big. 3) Increases in CO2 cause warming, not cooling. This bedrock climate science 101.
Storch: "Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."[2] Oooops, jerm you made a mistake.
he might be convinced cause that is how he gets paid he is as I said an agw nutter scientist... but he certainly does not have an science showing man made co2 causing warming. If he did he would have a nobel prize.
the oceans have been warming since the last ice age. not only do we know the sun warms the oceans but we are also learning the earth warms the oceans through volcanic activity.
as I explained... see the second paragraph. only liars and trolls pretend the models work. especially when I have gone over this with you a dozen times... here is a n agw nutter scientist letting you know the models were failing at 15 years... its now been 18 years of failing. (also note even then at 15 years the 2% level was a failure because that is outside the 95% confidence level. ) SPIEGEL: Just since the turn of the millennium, humanity has emitted another 400 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, yet temperatures haven't risen in nearly 15 years. What can explain this? Storch: So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We're facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year. SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we're observing right now? Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase. SPIEGEL: How long will it still be possible to reconcile such a pause in global warming with established climate forecasts? Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations. SPIEGEL: What could be wrong with the models? Storch: There are two conceivable explanations -- and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn't mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.[/quote]
Storch: "Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."[2] Storch is one of the 97+ %.