I should have done that two years ago when you were still debating about QM vs CL but I didn't. Too late now! Ok, I see you are serious about focusing on trading. I'll stop bringing up old stuff. Specifically, what kind of market conditions are you looking for to enter a short? Basically are you going to be fading or trend following? I am really trying to understand what your approach to trading is but you don't seem to be forthcoming with many details. Maybe in asking the questions you will start to think about how you are going to trade??
thanks Brocklanders...please just give me this shot...okay, for whatever reason (good or bad) I feel I perceive short-sell set-ups better than buy/long. Or, maybe it is just my confidence level in interpreting them. I am using the 5 minute chart and looking for momentum selling/heavy selling going on and then 'jumping in' right at the beginning of a new 5 minute bar "usually"...I am looking at bollinger bands and exposing over shoots to the top and also key prices levels (real numbers)...also considering key pivot support resistance levels...usually, my trades last 1-5 minutes only...if I could meet my $$ target every day in 1-5 minutes...would be awesome...yes, I know best to be an expert in one contract but these are the ones currently focusing on...thanks for your interest
Ok, best to sell rallies on weak days than jumping in during a down bar. You will most always end up better off than selling on a down tick. Sell failed rallies if you are going to stay in an intraday trading timeframe. If you are longer term then your strategy of selling during heavy volume might be ok but intraday that doesn't work that well and you will likely be getting in around the lows of the day to start out with and at worse will get run over by any retracement.
thanks... 1-what is your best indicator that it is a pure weak day and not a reversal coming? 2-on the flip side, what about "blown off top" reversal sell entries?...meaning ES soars in morning and retraces back and oyu enter in for sell profit
price action, I don't use any indicators for price prediction. lower highs, lower lows, etc. It is all subjective though and you can never really be 100% sure it won't blow back on you. The only way to be more confident is increase your screen time and manage your risk in the trade as it goes. Today the reversal was easy to see coming once the higher low was made at around 1:00pm and up volume began increasing. Then it was off to the races. It is usually a good idea to be out of your morning short position by 1pm-1:30pm just for this kind of day. If you see that higher low and volume coming in, watch out! I usually am either in a long term trend position already or fading rallies or buying drops. In that scenario, I would be looking to fade the morning rally if I wanted to be short for an intraday trade and get my profit early and/or sit on a longer term trade until the trend is over. This doesn't always work though if it is a really strong rally. I've been run over plenty of times only to have it drop back down later in the day. That comes with the territory when fading!
thanks!...I hear a lot about this...when using a 5 minute chart, how many 5 minute bars in a row triggers a signal or reversal?..3,4,5 etc.?
Hard to say as it could be 5 or 3 or 10 or anything in between. Your best bet it to keep an eye on the volume. Look at the sequence today starting around 12:30 - 1:00pm. The down volume starts to dry up with each passing 5 minute bar. You can see it hit its lowest point at around 1:30pm and then the up volume starts picking up at around 1:35 - 1:40pm. You usually can get out in enough time to protect your profit or if you were playing a reversal day sit back and watch the market work it's magic. Reversals are one my favorite types of setups!! Keep in mind, there are more trading days than trend days. Even if you have a weak day, odds are it will reverse on you in the afternoon rather than finishing weak.
great stuff BL...you've noted volume a number of times...so, you are a big believer in volume as an indicator?...specifically volume on a 5 minute chart
I'm a big believer in price action so yes, volume is important. You can use it to read the tea leaves so to speak. Sometimes it works great as a prediction tool other times not so much. Most of my trades are automated so I only view it as an observer and not so much to enter/exit trades. Some days you are better off putting in your stops and target orders and turning off the screen altogether. Staring too closely at the trees makes the forest appear different than it might actually be sometimes. Experience is the best teacher when to do what with your time. If you can control yourself you have a much better chance of survival. Friday is a great day to trade btw, get ready!!! Pick a market tomorrow and try out a trade. Let's see these training wheels come off!!!