When the SEC wanted to chase out all the mom, pop, kids in college and grannies in trading clubs, they simply raised the bridge to accounts over $25,000 and called it the PDT ruling... When the FTC and CFTC and others wanted to help the American public and food and feed prices, along with curbing inflation through making it less likely that two key grain feed stocks would no longer be traded with abandon and as a substitute for hard currency or precious metals, they recently implemented significantly higher margins on Corn and Wheat, perhaps other lesser grains too... Almost instantly, CNBC reports today that major retail futures trading houses would have some multi-billion dollar margin calls (when all the positions are netted out).... news events of Thursday, March 27th too many pansies keep suggesting that should they do the same to the fuel contracts (Nat Gas, Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline futures, etc) then that would chase the trading offshore to other markets and the ISE which isn't regulated or less regulated.... Who sees the need to just do it!? for the last 8 years, oil, fuel and other fuel based products have risen over 400% with no rationale reason, although many other reasons were offered and talked about, as if they were acceptable..... hey, just do it make it more expensive to engage in trading those products to the point where hedgers remain and spec are severly diminished... make it more costly for the multi-million / billion hedge funds to add all this price inflation to the fuel markets..... hey, just do it
Exactly. Anyone who thinks oil is above $100 a barrel due to excessive speculation in futures is either a.) stuck short or b.) delusional.
Hey, while you're at it, how about that Bush Cheney team, huh? Quiet as a mouse while oil is climbing outta sight, and as soon as oil drops ten bucks in two days, Cheney is johnny-on-the-spot trottin over to SA to find out what the deal is, (on the pretense he is going over to discuss high oil prices, yeah right), while Bush gets busy sabre-rattling about Iran... What a pair. Their affinities are so obvious, it's like watching a couple kids in the sandbox, you can read 'em like a book. Oil back up, quiet as mouses again. Working hard for the American (looks more like Saudi) interests.
so, why is it that Pabst Prime, and Kashirin seem to think that one needs to be delusional to see the obvious? why is it every time from Oil at $24 at the end of Clinton's Administration until the Enron inspired rigging during the transition into the Bush (stolen) presidency, oil went to $44 US/bbl and then every excuse, even producing slick 2 hour movies on "what if worst weather hit the Gulf", and it happened by chance, and then every excuse, known to the creative mind: someone tripped and broke their high heels on a pipeline somewhere in an oil producing region (Nigeria, Saudia, Russia, North Sea, Venezula, etc...) they justfy trading up another $8 or more per barrell.... finally, the latest excuses are global demand, as if all the new oil from the Russian regions haven't satiated a tremendous amount of the new demands already,, and the later latest excuses, oh, its the devalued US Dollar,,, what next, some secretary somewhere breaks a nail, or gets a paper cut and then, whath out another $24 increase in the price per bbl.... yeah, we're delusional all right, hey, that old phrase keeps ringing out: 4 more years
I'd consider speculation part of the lower dollar. So if you define anyone who does not take delivery as a speculator, then speculation IS behind a good portion of the rise in oil prices.
In your original post you said the CFTC and FTC intervened on grain margins. Not true. The CBOT/CME is FREAKING OUT over limit up/limit down volatility. It is the EXCHANGE that raised margins. The NYMEX has raised margins a BUNCH OF TIMES. As recently as a couple of weeks ago they brought CL up to 8k. Oil is just one of a ZILLION things that's gone up. Is evil Bush buying metals? Cotton? Soybean oil? Real estate? Do you know anything about global oil consumption increases? Or the weaker dollar? Did you know that last year with gasoline climbing and climbing that America used MORE than the year before. When prices go up and demand isn't diminished nor production increased what happens? Prices rise. As soon as you see consumer data showing a slowdown in usage you'll see a whopping break in crude. I have no idea if or when that day is coming. I've been caught short in that shit too. But the market is what it is. It's like me freaking over Bernanke/Paulson on the dollar. It's up to ME to anticipate what the other assholes will do. (easier said than done)
Call me delusional. I forgot the year, but perhaps it was fall of '05 GS said oil to $100. I read the govt forecast reports for oil/gas use consumption for '06, nothing out of the ordinary yet oil kept going higher and higher. As far as gasoline consumption going up, says who? The gov't? :eek:
thanks for the clarifcation and correction, I submit that I got that wrong, I also submit that Reg T margin at $2,000 being raised to $25,000 by means of the new PDT Rule represented a 12,500% increase in frequent trade margins. ($2,000 * 12500.00) The Nymex did a pittence compared to what stopped cold all those small investors.... Whether or not those who take physical delivery or not (which includes day traders and such as our lot or cast of characters) as speculators or not, is not material. It the same were applied to Oil and Fuel related trading, since it evidently is so important to every aspect of our and others economies, then let's do the math, hmmmm? $8,000 current margin * 12,500% = what, hmmmm? I will tell you, a sufficient sum that chases out all this fluff and deflates this custard..... hey, we're all being deflated, why not them too?, hmmmm? just stand outside BSC and see if those poor souls thrown out on their collective bumms, saw it coming, their deflation,,,, just ask the average freezing American consumer trying to heat their homes, drive to work to pay off these consumer lead economic durable goods, hmmm,, point being is the notion that one can talk this issue away through "you don't know what you're talking about statements" just don't work..... hey, maybe I don't know what I am talking about, but I am in the vast majority of company of my fellow citizens..... hey, 4 more years after all, why not, hmmmm?
talk about playing with the numbers, remember how Enron and others rigged the game? unscheduled power outtages and repairs of plants, where no repairs or maintenance was required or justified, and miraculously making available power from other grids at hugely inflated costs.... consumer protection laws and fraud laws already in place were sufficient to prevent these manipulations in previous administrations, why this one, why a perfect storm of all these diasters? are they cursed or did they curse the American people and their economic system? one thing is certain, just about no outside force could have wrecked this economy like it has been done from the top down.... oh, the point, gasoline consumption has gone up dramatically because of pulling so much refinement and production offline and then reporting less available, talk about false manilation to justify the 400% + price spikes almost without any retreat or other normal market supply / demand corrections....