LOL, I'm not upset. You saw the post I made complimenting nukie. You saw the post I made which talks about the fundamentals of trading, without which you can't even begin to to trade correctly. You saw the post I made about the professionals who don't want to get involved.
for those of you who say to use higher timeframes as reference: 1. i understand taking trades in the direction of the macro trend. what do you do if the higher time frame is not making a trend (say it made LL but then HH)? Would you sit out until it forms a definitive trend, then? 2. is looking at a higher timeframe significantly different from people who place a slower MA on their charts? Their thinking is that a slower MA shows you the higher timeframe's trend. I guess you cant discern highs/lows and S/R from it, however.
You're right, it is about probabilities ( and RR). PA is how we skew those probabilities in our favor. Trend and S/R are simple concepts, nothing abstract. A S zone or line is simply an area at which, for whatever reason buyers, decided a certain instrument was a good buy, and so they bought with conviction. So many did this that price didnt reach below that point. Thats support. If price suddenly plunges below that line, we can say that at least some of those people are no longer interested at that price, which creates less demand ,so we are bearish. Thats pretty simple. It's not that easy to trade of course, when you have stops, stop runs, shakeouts etc, but the fact that you think that simple and easily understood concept is an "illusion" tells me you really don't know what you're talking about...which is ok, but Ironfist is trying to learn about PA here. Trend is equally as easy to understand, assuming no stop losses, lets say you have to hold a given trade for 2 weeks. If trend has been down for the last few months are the probabilities in your favors if you go long or short? Its not rocket science. And stop saying its about probabilities. Of course it is. Thats like saying all we need to do is buy high and sell low. No shit. Its the HOW that were are talking about. PA is how we get the odds in our favor.
IF, Have you identified as aspect of PA that you want to focus on? I think if you do this it will be much easier for you to see what you're looking for. I would identify what kind of set ups you're looking for, then we can figure out how to get there.
What kind of set-ups do you focus on, Jon? I focus on the simplest for now. I use two strategies, still trying to refine each. By after second hh and hl or after third. I something use the pullback, but not always. I want to stick to one or the other (buy on pullback or not,) but I haven't yet decided which works best for me. Anyway, would like to here what you use. (Of course, your thinking in realtime rather than marked up charts afterwards!)
No! sorry i am not being rude but i'm no expert but would suggest googling VSA (volume spread analysis) The only thing i would reiterate is that vol alone i find useless and lots of people say that and i believe the reason is that vol alone simply tells you the amount of trade done.Big vol is a clue that sm is in the market but the key thing is what is the result of big vol as to the bar? and where is that bar in relation to the current pa? I would add this. Imagine you are the smart money.Which is the best way for to 1) operate 2) disguise your intentions. (i'm no guru this is simply food for thought) I am trading in very large quantity such that if i attempt to put my full position on in one go i will adversely move the market,so if i am buying the price will go up and i will be continually paying higher price when i am trying to profit. Makes sense to me to buy when price is falling and put on my position at increasingly cheaper price No? Of course i would prefer to do this when others are selling in numbers panic would suit my purpose even better as the job will be done quicker but certainley lots of sellers,as i said, i have large positions to fill. Once i got my position filled price bottoms out - i have removed the supply or most of it (support- to me support means someone is supporting the price literally if after all if everyone is selling why is the price not falling further?) This is where i think a lot of people go wrong.Price is falling on big volume= sell .I am looking for the complete opposite IF the bar confirms the smart money is buying,by closing near the top of bar on big volume in a down trend. Once supply is removed a breakout of this support area which was 'accumulation' occurs trapping the shorts who must cover at higher price- 'capitulation' meanwhile those on the sidelines jump in adding to the momentum,and at this point anyone attempting to average their short position gets wiped out. Volume at this point is IRRELEVENT the sm is holding letting others make them money by jumping on the breakout.Big bars ending near the top confirms the 'markup' The only time i want to look at vol again is when we hit a key resistance level (not a floor pivot or some small fib or your own personal trend line you become fond of ) Just reverse this whole process when they are ready to unload .Remember, i need to unload my position at increasingly higher price (because of my size) rather than when price is falling hence resistance/ sideways distribution BUT that is only confirmed by big volume at a resistance level with the bar closing near the bottom. That tells you that when most people were buying somebody sold large size there. Its not that they are out to get you it's that they are forced to trade this way because of their size though of course they need you to be going the opposite way. Now, to me everything inbetween key s/r is 'noise' and part of a buying/selling campaign by the sm. If you are unaware of the basic intention at any given time you are.. lets put it this way, at a disadvantage
For the past 8 weeks i have been focusing on identifying the trend, and then entering on the pull backs (or pull ups). I focus on one strategy at a time, this way I can formulate rules and understand that strategy thoroughly before adding other setups. I'll be adding a reversal strategy starting in January.
yes, like i said, the market is widening...There we more sellers in the last candle than the fist (the lower lows), and there were more buyers in the last candle than the first (the HH's), it could go in either direction. Take a look again at the charts I've been posting. if you take a 10 sma on a 1hr chart, and take a 31 sma on a 4hr chart, your values should be off only by a few ticks, but more or less the same.
ES 10k volume chart today. IF, I think the reason you see why people say trading is more of an art then science is because it's the blending of different things that help you trade. Whether it's chart patterns, S/R, macro and micro time frames, entry and exit timing etc.... How you add this all up is the "Art" of trading. I think you are headed in the right direction. You will pick and choose from what is presented and make it your own. Paul